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Strategies & Market Trends : VOLTAIRE'S PORCH-MODERATED -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Zeev Hed who wrote (49625)	4/5/2002 6:09:47 PM
From: stockman_scott	Respond to of 65232

Cowen says Q1 capex won't be the bottom --3:56pm - By Julie Rannazzisi / CBS MarketWatch SG Cowen offered its outlook on carrier capital spending, claiming in a research note that the first quarter won't be the bottom. "Our conversations with carrier contacts suggest that first-quarter capex will likely not be the bottom [and that] the second quarter is shaping up to be equally challenging -- if not worse. We expect sequential improvements after the second quarter to be modest at best," analyst Christin Armacost commented. The analyst notes that carriers continue to see price pressures on services and declines in customer access lines and believes those trends may lead to revenue disappointments and, ultimately, more capex reductions. "Even if first-quarter capex appears to be a low point, we would be cautious," Cowen warned.

To: Zeev Hed who wrote (49625)	4/5/2002 7:09:35 PM
From: stockman_scott	Respond to of 65232

Some very interesting comments on Gold Stocks... Message 17291866

To: Zeev Hed who wrote (49625)	4/6/2002 8:10:35 AM
From: Mao II	Respond to of 65232

Zeev: I think you saw precisely that phenomenon during the protracted deflation in the second half of the 19th century. M2

To: Zeev Hed who wrote (49625)	4/6/2002 11:08:29 AM
From: Jim Willie CB	Respond to of 65232

one man's deflation (based in currency) is another's inflation case in point is Japan the biggest misconception I encounter is that people believe gold to serve a single role, as inflation hedge wrong it is currency instability protection, whether inflation or deflation the world currency system is teetering on the US$-Euro-JYen foundation Japan's role is rapidly deteriorating Japan is the primary engine behind gold's rise here are two tidbits I recall on Japan citizens - in Jan 2001 if Joe Suzuki took $1000 out of savings account, and put into gold, net gain (vs stay put) is 65% by Feb 2002 - in Jan 2001 if Joe Suzuki took $1000 out of Nikkei account, and put into gold, net gain (vs stay put) is 85% but the key element of the argument is.... those figures of 65% and 85% are relative to the world currency standard, the USDollar you and so many others are locked in your view with sights of price patterns now, namely deflation, as seen in many sectors now but rising prices are the norm in all energy related niches and across some commodities, prices are rising how about seeds planted for price inflation? how about citing the ultimate source of price inflation? "rising money supply (cash or debt) above and beyond the growth level of an economy" has the US economy grown over 100% since 1990? has the US economy grown 30% since Jan 2001? this is the money supply growth levels witnessed by the Dept of Inflation, headed by GreenMan EXPECT AND PLAN FOR HYPERINFLATION FROM 2003 TO 2006 it will make 1980 look tame the seeds have been planted GreenAir has an established record of over-reacting, misreading, and relying on heretic practices he tightened too much in 1999-2000 now he is loosening too much in 2001-2002 answer me this why is LIQUIDITY a good thing (money supply infusion) but INFLATION is a bad thing ??? he has confused the mass illiterates that inflation is the result of growth, of labor strain it is the result of money supply excesses liquidity and inflation are the same thing excess money supply growth gold protects from the wild swings UP and DOWN from price and currency instability even within a "mostly" closed economy, the price deflation you witness is a curse for creditors, e.g. bond holders so you see no need to hedge versus price instability, since you are a consumer but a creditor sees zero real rate of return, and thus turns to gold as a hedge against destruction of his base so creditor nations like Japan, and creditor institutions like bondholders each have an urgent need to protect their eroding capital in this environment the key missed point is that historically unprecedented liquidity has been provided to the US economy in recent months and years liquidity is not the longterm cure to problems and crises it is the shorterm cure excessive liquidity is by definition seed for price inflation in longterm inflation should appear on widespread price basis (to everyone's surprise except monetary fundamentalists) by yearend 2002 it should accelerate by 2003 as the dollar continues to decline, price inflation is imported and you get some degree of hyperinflation by 2005 maybe you are not aware of the central dynamics behind price inflation and you subscribe to GreenBack's pablum I expect GreenShit's legacy to be one of Keynesian Failure we are in the early throes of a Kondratief Cycle, fascinating - monetary expansion (Roosevelt New Deal, 1930's) - popular war (WorldWar 2, Korea) - technology boom (1950 to 2000) - unpopular war (VietNam) - inflation in prices (1980 to 2000) - monetary contraction (Republican pledge of 2001?) - speculative excess (many target areas in recent years) - liquidation (2002 to 2006?) the near laughable phenomenon I see now is the total lack of understanding behind both inflation and deflation, its root source, its perceived effect, even its definition I find intelligent people to be severely ignorant of inflation but the simple conclusion I arrive at is ... one man's deflation is another's inflation as the person suffers from inflation, he protects with gold as a hedge (it is clear) as the person suffers from deflation, he does not protect with gold as a hedge (it is unclear) we differ from Japan in a few critical ways we allow bankruptcy we react to crises with money supply infusions some call it increased liquidity but it is really seeds of inflation eventually plan on inflation being the next big big big surprise gold has been a remarkably "smart" LEADING INDICATOR OF INFLATION for a very long time assume it is smarter than you, and you will prosper / jim

To: Zeev Hed who wrote (49625)	4/6/2002 12:03:35 PM
From: Jim Willie CB	Respond to of 65232

very pleased to see and welcome Claude Cormier on VPorch he is a Canadian mining professional with strong experience, solid background I hope to learn from him esp during the next several quarters when inflation returns with a vengeance Zeev, the unfortunate reality in recent years is the quiet tyranny waged on US citizens by GreenSpasm he fought inflation in the early 1990's and delivered deflation he has begun to fight deflation in the early 2000's and will deliver inflation count on it / jim