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To: E.J. Neitz Jr who wrote (39041)	4/6/2002 4:46:58 PM
From: Joe Stocks	Respond to of 53068

>>"AOL hit 21 - any nibblers"<< We discussed this issue a few weeks ago when it was at 24. Many have been calling the bottom of this thing for the last 40 points. AOL has some big cash issues and other uncertainties in my opinion. On top of that,their debt may soon be downgraded. AOL is no longer a growth company. Once it tied the knot with TWX all chances of ever being one again are gone. If it's not growth it should be "Value". With the debt it carries it will be a long time to see "value". Income stock? lots of laughs! AOL is dead money. As I said before, there are enough hangers on that that still believe in the old AOL story that will give this one decent moves for a bounce but I think the risk/reward favors shorting at resistance for scalps than trying to identify a bottom. That said, I never see the risk/reward to trade it short either because of it's "cult" following. When AOL gets down to less than 2 times revenues (about $15-17)then it may be worth a look for value. With so many better stocks this one doesn't even make my watchlist. Color this one "immaterial" in my opinion. On a side note, I have an acquaintance that is Chairman of of probably one of the 25 largest corporations in America. We were discussing AOL the other day. His comment was that he thought the AOL/TWX merger would be a case study someday for corporate synergies that were absolute failures. AOL took an excellent franchise and diluted the brand causing a significant loss of shareholder value. HWP is doing much the same thing. Too bad for the long time shareholders. What happened to "wisdom" on these corporate boards? Joe

To: E.J. Neitz Jr who wrote (39041)	4/8/2002 9:40:34 AM
From: E.J. Neitz Jr	Respond to of 53068

IBM Warns. Historically, when the long-term invincible leader of a depressed group warns, it the end or close to the end of the bottom in that group. Could this be the case with IBM? IBM has held up very well over past 1 1/2 year bear market in technology....so this could be the signal. Maybe, maybe not no one knows at this point. Over the past 20 years the technology group has seen bubbles and sharp breaks. Each time, after a few years of a base, the tech sector came back stronger than the previous bull cycle. The future of the US and the world is technology driven and in my humble opinion, I expect technology will play a very large part in world-wide GDP. I sit with an almost 100% cash position. Boring, but has served me well past few months. I sit and watch and wait for my re-entry point. Best wishes everyone...I do keep an eye on this message group! Ed