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Strategies & Market Trends : Zeev's Turnips - No Politics -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Robin Plunder who wrote (47906)	4/6/2002 6:23:03 PM
From: Justa Werkenstiff	Respond to of 99280

Robin: Re: "It would seem that in our current context, an arms signal is not necessarily bullish, and may even be bearish." Bullish? Not in this bear market. I think it is bearish as it has been every time we had had such a print in this bear market at least for the following few weeks. If the ten day trin does get to 1.50 or greater, I will treat the market quite differently. I will put on a different pair of glasses and change rulebooks. Re: " I would really like to know what the arms indicator would look like for the dow in 1929 to 1932....do you know if anyone has done this calculation?" Good question. I believe if such a calculation was capable of being made, someone would have done an article on it by now. Re: "It is also interesting that we did not get much of a rally after the January signal, just that very weak late february rally, which is also unprecedented, I believe. In the past, an arms signal over 1.5 would indicate the start of a significant rally within 21 trading days, but all we got was a weak rally that was later than 21 days." Go back as I think the ten day trin bell range twice in January, the last time on January 22nd. I think the rally in February was very close if not exactly 21 trading days from that date. It was almost as if they were looking at the Dow and saying the 21 days were up so I guess it is time to rally the Dow as it did not crack. Everything else followed.