To: goldsnow who wrote (13320 ) 4/6/2002 11:59:26 AM From: Tadsamillionaire Respond to of 23908 The U.S. intelligence community is putting the finishing touches on a major report on China's strategic missile forces. The new national intelligence estimate (NEA), intended as a consensus of all intelligence agencies, is said to minimize the buildup of China's strategic missile forces, a perennial problem of China analysis produced at the CIA and the Defense Intelligence Agency (DIA). Some political infighting over the new estimate has spilled over to the Pentagon from the CIA, which dominates the estimate-producing National Intelligence Council. The Pentagon this week was set to release its annual report to Congress on the People's Liberation Army (PLA) and Chinese military power. The report is said to warn that China's strategic forces buildup poses a direct and future threat to the United States. Concerning China's growing military prowess, the report will reflect the much more realistic views that have taken shape under Defense Secretary Donald H. Rumsfeld and Deputy Defense Secretary Paul Wolfowitz. Final preparations to send the report to Capitol Hill were ready but a Pentagon spokesman then said, after checking on the status of the report, that its release "is not imminent." Other officials said the report was blocked by senior administration officials who are concerned about producing two contradictory assessments on China's missile buildup. The administration is now trying to square the hard-line Defense Department PLA military power report, which will be made public, with the soft-line intelligence community estimate that will stay secret. Soft-line analysts at CIA and DIA, we are told, have applied an incorrect Cold War analytical model of strategic nuclear warhead numbers to the China-United States strategic balance, and thus concluded there's no threat. China's current long-range nuclear force consists of about 24 land-based long-range strategic missiles. But Beijing has been sharply boosting its defense spending for the past decade with double-digit growth percentages. It is working on two new mobile intercontinental ballistic missiles and a new missile submarine. The China-is-not-a-threat school of analysts apparently continues to dominate U.S. intelligence analyses of Chinese military affairs, despite some recent reforms in China analysis. The CIA already is under fire from Congress for its weak China analysis. A panel of outside experts last year harshly criticized its work and found an "institutional predispostion" to play down Chinese military developments. Now the new estimate is expected to fuel critics who say the U.S. intelligence agency continues to get it wrong on the emerging communist regional power. More article @...washingtontimes.com In my opinion,,,, We had better get strong again fast.