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To: JohnG who wrote (19368)	4/6/2002 12:57:49 PM
From: JohnG	Respond to of 34857

SK says all this 1XEV DO MOBILE internet music vidio will be available on color screen phones starting in April, 2002 --i.e. this month. They see such phones costing 700,000 to 800,000 won (i.e.US$ 530 to 606 @ 1US$=1320 won) for image calling and 500-600 won for streaming multimedia. They see a music vidio download costing 6,ooo won=$US 4.50. Prices to fall later as usual. Samsung claims to be 10 months ahead of US and Japan in phone development. 3gtoday.com They are light years ahead of the Europeans who don't believe in color screens but think tet messaging and i-mode is cutting edge. <<my comment>> I really don't see how Verizon will be able do test demand for this type of service as its utility to users is highly dependant of the number of users who have the service.

To: JohnG who wrote (19368)	4/6/2002 7:58:46 PM
From: Eric L	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 34857

John, re: Verizon 1X EV DO trials. Egad. Are you still posting here? <g> My Evil Twin must have put you on our tiny SI "Ignore" List - probably for using a term we both abhor or indulging in a sport we both abhor. Anywho ... << I wonder what Verizon has in the way of terminals and software to be used in its trials >> Probably not much ... but I would guess enough to conduct a trial ... ... and a meaningful trial is important in this wireless data wasteland. Although they have suffered some attrition Verizon has some pretty astute people left in the wireless data group on both the operations side and the marketing side (a lot of whom came out of BAM, NYNEX, or BAM/NYNEX). I might add that the engineers on the operations side are very marketing oriented, and many of the marketing side folks are EE's with good academic and practical credentials in marketing. Included in the group is some real packet-switched data experience - players who put together the CDPD network and pioneered packet-switched data long before CDMA did any type of data (and well before GSM even attempted packet-switched). The attrition BTW was caused by the fact that Verizon had some real talent and they were attracted elsewhere after the PCS auctions. Forget Andy Seybold's nonsense, combining the voice and data marketing groups at Verizon won't disrupt anything. << The only device that I know or that Verizon has to use is a Compaq lap top computer that was shown at CTIA. >> I'm sure that they will have at least a modem card in addition to the Compaq lap-top with embedded DO chip and maybe more laptops than just the Compaq. The modem card will work with certain PDA's (trick here is the serial or USB cable or even Bluetooth - not as small a trick as you might imagine). << I don't think ther have any large color screen phones, camera phones, GPS color phones etc, >> Nobody does - yet, and they may well not get to that level in the test, although certainly ONE color screen phone and maybe an attachable or integral camera would be nice and Sanyo, LG or Samsung might have one up their sleeve. << Along this line, SK's 1XEVDO choices supposedly currently include only cards for laptops. HJowever, it is clear from this vidio promo that SK plans to run music vidio on color screen phones. >> That's right. SKT's plans look like this: >> EV-DO Handset Roll-out Plan on Track * Testing underway * Expected number of major vendors: 7 * EV- DO phones are color, have 40 polyphonic tones and video enabled * Introduce EV-DO Services - Feb 2002: Notebook PCMCIA Card for Notebook PC - May 2002: Non-VOD Handset with 65K Color STN LCD and Camera * Drive EV-DO Penetration - Jun 2002: VOD Handset with 260K Color TFT LCD and Camera - Aug 2002: Ultra Videophone with Enhanced Display and Large Memory << [but remember CDMA things happen in Korea before they happen here] << Clearly, VZN and Sprint are well behind th curve on DO as they barely have 1X RTT. No music vidios, no content, no color phones, and a generally LOUSY customer dxperience. >> John, it really may just be that the Korean's are ahead of the curve. There is nothing new about that. They commercialized IS-95. They pioneered the use of 2-way SMS within the CDMA world. They made excellent utility out of WAP (so it wasn't CRAP). They commercialized IS-95B. They commercialized IS-95C (1xRTT Release 0). Now they are commercializing DO. Their customer base is ready, willing, and able to embrace meaningful wireless data. I don't know if you have read William C. Y. Lee's "Essentials of Wireless Communications". Everybody that invests in Qualcomm should read it, IMO. Everybody that invests in wireless should read it, IMO. There are 3 exceptionally good sub-chapters that bear on the subject you and I are discussing and help to explain Koreas success (and how the carriers, government, and manufacturers - and Qualcomm - EARNED that success): § 6.7 "The Dark Ages of CDMA" § 6.8 "Korean CDMA Development Model" § 6.7 "Qualcomm Invented CDMA & Korea Rescued CDMA" Korea is WAY OUT in front of anyone else in the world as re packet-switched wireless data ... with the exception of the Japanese (and particularly DoCoMo). The MARKET for wireless data is much better developed and prepared for practical use of wireless data as a result: >> Unique Merits of the Korean Wireless Market * Market consolidated from 5 to 3 [carrier] players: Limited competition * 61% penetration as of December 2001 (Forecasted 79% penetration in 2005) * ARPU steadily growing. * Prepaid almost non-existent: 0.5% of total subscribers. * Customers extremely receptive to new technology * Technology leadership << Those were SKT's Moonsoo Pyo's thoughts, to which I would add: * No market fragmentation (single technology). * Relentless dedication to the development and implementation task at hand. We here in the less mature US market need to remember that medium to high speed wireless data is a supply side technology push, and best we don't forget that. Success in Korea & Japan do NOT necessarily translate into guaranteed success in the US of A, and the technology adoption pattern by end users will be decidedly different here. As a consequence credible vendors have to be highly motivated to tailor devices (in small quantity) for the US wireless data market, and committing to high volume before readiness for market success is tested could be suicidal ... ... and this all leads to the subject of "economies of scale" ... ... and that gets back to the sensibility of trialing ... ... but that gets into the chicken & egg subject of how in the hell do you trial effectively, if there are no devices (or limited devices) to trial with. That's the old "Catch 22" of wireless. Personally, I have mixed emotions about DO (HDR) with this neat mix of TDM & CDMA technologies: ... I think that DO (HDR) is a fantastic technical accomplishment and it makes me proud to be a Qualcomm and CDMA advocate (don't tell Mighty I said that please), even in its precommercial stages. ... I fully appreciate the technical advantages of separating wireless voice and data (and I also think I understand somewhat the offsetting practical and technical advantages of fully integrating voice and data). ... As an investor I am not sure that DO (HDR) will ever enjoy the economies of scale necessary to make it a commercial success even though I am rather certain that it will enjoy commercial success (degree uncertain) in Korea and Japan and niches elsewhere, and I think it is entirely possible that we may have to wait (some time) for the commercialization of 1xEV-DV and W-CDMA with the HSDPA extension running on All-IP networks to see real widespread usage of wireless multimedia (outside of a WLAN environment.. But ... Let the trials begin. All JMHO & FWIW. Best, - Eric -