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Strategies & Market Trends : Zeev's Turnips - No Politics -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Zeev Hed who wrote (47957)	4/6/2002 5:12:53 PM
From: mishedlo	Respond to of 99280

A "radish" forecast. It will take time to build my case, which is layed out first. I am looking ahead at QQQ options. Max pain in May is 35-36 Max pain in June is 38-39 The interesting thing is that there is way bigger PUT volume in June than May, and at higher prices. May option open interest is lighter than either April or June. This is significant in that it permits easier delta hedging by the crooks. The biggest single put strike price in May is 35 and the volume is a mere 36K contracts (as of now), contrasted with 95K puts at the same strike in June. There is no significant call volume in June until strike 37 and that is a mere (by QQQ standards 27K). Now looking closely at May CALLs/PUTs strike 35 - 42K/36K strike 34 - 2K/18K strike 33 - 5K/6K strike 32 - 3K/8K strike 31 - 2K/13K strike 30 - 2K/16K strike 29 - 0K/1K very light volumes (on a relative basis) and more calls than puts at the heaviest strike! Scenario: It would seem that THE ideal time for the crooks to tank us is right after expiry. Hold us to QQQ 34-35 for now, and start the crucifixation immediately after expiry. As long as they can keep people bullish enough to be buying more calls than puts for May, they can take us down huge in May, load up on the bottom, rally us back to QQQ 35 in a huge ramp before the May expiry and keep the ramp job going until ... ta da (QQQ 39 hits in June). A late Spring rally! In fact I can not think of a scenario that makes any more sense, given the way the crooks are nailing Max pain on the QQQ's month after month after month. This is in reverse order to your spring/rally summer collapse theory but is there a strong turnip reason for this scenario to not happen? Perhaps it is just a manifestation of a late spring rally occurring in May/June instead of April/May. We can always head back down July-Oct after more distribution at the top. Comments appreciated. M