Silicon Investor (SI) -- The First Internet Community

STOCKTALK

We've detected that you're using an ad content blocking browser plug-in or feature. Ads provide a critical source of revenue to the continued operation of Silicon Investor. We ask that you disable ad blocking while on Silicon Investor in the best interests of our community. If you are not using an ad blocker but are still receiving this message, make sure your browser's tracking protection is set to the 'standard' level.

Gold/Mining/Energy : Big Dog's Boom Boom Room -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Frank who wrote (8711)	4/6/2002 4:11:16 PM
From: jim_p	Respond to of 206131

Frank, Very well stated!!! Jim

To: Frank who wrote (8711)	4/6/2002 5:57:06 PM
From: Warpfactor	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 206131

Frank, I'm surprised that Islamic fundamentalist extremists in SA haven't yet gone after the oil supply and delivery infrastructure in that country. It is in the best interest of the government (whomever that may be) to keep the crude flowing, but extremeist populations may see it differently. I suspect that whatever funding they're getting is dependant on keeping that infrastructure operational. Warp

To: Frank who wrote (8711)	4/6/2002 7:28:04 PM
From: excardog	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 206131

Hi Frank, What I find interesting in regards to oil supplies is rarely is there any agreement. Everyone tends to have an opinion. Probably one of the reasons the stocks in the sector are so volatile. Some days the bulls are in control and some days the bears. Crude sold off late last week in response to General Powell's visit next week. I for one expect his trip to do nothing other than pay lip service to all the countries critical of Bush's mid east policy. Suicide bombers will continue to commit suicide and Israel will continue to retaliate. Question then becomes what is the end game? If mid east oil supplies are halted at least temporarily can others pick up the slack? My feeling is not much help out there. As you pointed out demand comes from more than just the good old USA. I imagine that several of us on this board can remember the oil embargo in the early seventies. For those that are too young it's not something I wish to go through again. Lines at the pump around the block. Even and odd number fill up days. Economy grinding to a halt. Tough times. The writer of this report is as confused as we all seem to be not knowing just where the breaking point may lie: SOURCE: Standard & Poor's Impacts for Investors as Middle East Tensions Heighten Risks to Oil Supplies Says S&P Industry Survey; Fallout from Standoff between OPEC and Russia Over Oil Production also Mentioned Whether the OPEC-Russia Showdown Comes Before or After A Possible U.S. Attack Against Iraq Will Determine the Extent Of the Price Impact, Industry Analyst Forecasts NEW YORK, April 4 /PRNewswire/ -- Standard & Poor's has released its forecast for the Oil and Gas Production and Marketing Industry, which sees Russia emerging as an alternative to Middle East oil supplies and poised to regain its position as the world's top crude-oil producer for the first time in a decade, as OPEC member nations comply with the cartel's quotas in 2002. The leader in global financial research and investment analysis says that short-term supply risks due to Middle East tensions and possible expansion of the war on terrorism to Iraq are mitigated by the increased stores of oil built up during the recent economic downturn. Beyond these issues, the depletion of current reserves poses an ongoing long-term challenge for the industry. For U.S. natural gas producers, the drop in actively-producing gas rigs in 2001 stemming from a slow economy's reduced demand could mean a return to the high gas prices of 2000, as demand outpaces the reduced supply this year. The forecast is part of Standard & Poor's Industry Survey on Oil and Gas: Production & Marketing, a study produced every six months by the firm's senior equity analysts. Standard & Poor's Industry Surveys series keeps a watchful eye on 51 U.S. industries, offering insights into trends and conditions that affect leading companies' market performance. ``With the Middle East holding 66% of the world's oil reserves and supplying over 35% of its current production, heightened tensions in the Middle East could lead to a short-run supply of oil. Also, energy production and distribution are vulnerable to the risk of terrorist attacks on the U.S. and elsewhere,'' says Tina Vital, Standard & Poor's Oil and Gas analyst and author of the survey. ``But a serious problem looms in the long run as well: the depletion of oil reserves. From 1980 to 1990, oil reserves rose by 54%; however, from 1990 to 2000, oil reserves have increased by only 1.4%. So is oil really running out?'' she continues. Vital concludes: ``The easy answer is yes: Oil is a non-renewable resource and will someday become scarce. The hard part is determining when.'' Industry Surveys for the Oil & Gas: Production & Marketing Industry looks at the issues affecting all segments of the oil and gas production industry, including: the National Energy Security bill before Congress which affects the oil and gas industry on matters including automotive fuel economy standards and a mandate to boost ethanol use; foreign trade restrictions, notably regarding Iran and Libya; the growing prominence of newly-privatized firms from emerging market economies; the impact of just-in-time refining; and Europe's lead in the development of renewable energy projects. It also looks at how certain of these issues and industry consolidations affect companies such as BP, ChevronTexaco, ExxonMobil, Royal Dutch/Shell, and TotalFinaElf. Standard & Poor's Industry Surveys provide a broad and fundamental overview of each industry's structure, its recent performance, and an analysis of trends that will influence it in the future. Each survey is organized into the following sections: Current Environment, Industry Profile/Industry Trends, How the Industry Operates, Key Industry Ratios and Statistics, How to Analyze a Company, Industry References, Comparative Company Analysis, and a Glossary of terms used in that industry. Both text and data are provided, as are references to additional sources of industry information. Two surveys on each industry are published each year. The 51 Standard & Poor's Industry Surveys reports are available for purchase from Standard & Poor's Central Inquiry Department by telephone at 212-438-7760, or via e-mail to Central_Inquiry_Unit@standardandpoors.com. Standard & Poor's, a division of The McGraw-Hill Companies (NYSE: MHP - news), provides independent financial information, analytical services, and credit ratings to the world's financial markets. Among the company's many products are the S&P 1200, the premier global equity performance benchmark, the S&P 500, the premier U.S. portfolio index, and credit ratings on more than 220,000 securities and funds worldwide. With more than 5,000 employees located in 18 countries, Standard & Poor's is an integral part of the global financial infrastructure. For more information, visit standardandpoors.com .

To: Frank who wrote (8711)	4/6/2002 8:25:33 PM
From: Raymond Duray	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 206131

Hi Frank, Thanks for the well written reply. Unlike others on the thread, I find myself largely in disagreement with your conclusions and aspirations. Regarding your son, like many at Cato, I'd like him to come home on the 10:00 PM flight and allow one festering wound that the Arab "street" is angry about heal. We have no good reason to be so unapologetically intrusive, hegemonic and meddlesome in that part of the world. Our imperialistic thrust has been met with an ugly parry in the 911 incident, and we can only expect more of the same if we maintain our belligent stance in the Middle East. Which is a pity, since I can see myself in utter agreement with the very intelligent analysts at Cato, such as Jerry Taylor, who wows me with his clear-headed and lucid understanding of the macroeconomics of world oil supply. I'll post the webcast of the Cato Institute's outstanding presentation on Saudi Arabian-U.S. relations when it becomes available on the Web. It was on C-SPAN a couple of nights ago, and I was tremendously impressed. It should be available in about a week's time. Taylor addressed the 1973 oil embargo in a very straightforward manner. His conclusion was that crude oil if fungible, there never was a shortage and the reaction in the U.S. retail market did not in any healthy way reflect what was occurring in the upstream wholesale markets for crude. There was an over-reaction in U.S. market, where hoarding was responsible for at least half of the shortfall. In other words, the sort of panicked response to a crisis that you and Quehubo express become self-fulfilling prophesies of doom. I'll have more on the subject later, but let me assure you that there is no shortage of crude oil in the world, there is a vastly more diverse supply of non-OPEC oil than was the case in 1973, and it is market hysteria that is going to be the most likely cause of market hysteria. Re: Our children and granchildren will rue the day we allowed our energy infrastructure to atrophy and placed ourselves at the whims of those who despise us, our way of life and our freedom. I agree with that sentiment. That is why I so completely aghast at the short-sighted and prejudicial "National Energy Plan" as proposed by Dich Cheney. It is narrowly drawn to make sure that we attempt to use 1950 solutions to 21st Century problems. The emphasis on drill & spill technologies is risible, in the face of a seemingly assured lack of petroleum reserves within U.S. sovereign territory. What we should be doing is using the auspices of the DoE and other scientific apparatus within the government to advance renewable energy, be it wind, solar, hydrogen conversion, fuel cells, etc. But what we find, in the fine print of course, is that Cheney is rewarding his pals in the oil & gas industry by further subsidizing their regime, while quietly cutting off funding for nascent technologies that make imminently more sense for the U.S. citizenry, should the goal truly be energy independence. Sadly, it appears that that is not the case. What seems to be true is that the extraction of petroleum from the most dangerous and implacably intolerant corners of the globe is the goal of the American corporate elites, who cynically employ your son as a thug and enforcer in their game of resource domination in hostile territory. Not only do you pay for this as a taxpayer, while the corporate interests enjoy a free ride with a nation's armed forces hired out as a private police force, but you may eventually get to endure having your son come home in a body bag. And for what? A few more barrels of oil? A bit more profit for Exxon and Chevron? Seems like you're getting the raw end of this bargain. I'd rather see my tax money go into intelligent research into how we end our oil dependency, not on sending our sons and daughters into harm's way half way around a very hostile globe. But, that's just me. Your mileage may vary. Salaam aleikum, Ray