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Technology Stocks : Qualcomm Moderated Thread - please read rules before posting -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: foundation who wrote (21223)	4/7/2002 10:29:29 AM
From: grinder965	Respond to of 196533

Yes Ben it's all coming together....even more beautifully then I ever expected it would. The news flow this past week was extremely positive. I'm hoping Q's share price continues to languish for just a little bit longer as I continue to build what will be my largest and longest position ever. I no longer intend to trade my shares as I believe the advantages of cdma2000 1x and evdo will become so obvious that even a blind man in Europe might see the light <ggg>

To: foundation who wrote (21223)	4/7/2002 11:54:00 AM
From: JohnG	Respond to of 196533

Two Faces of Wireless--First is user experience and Second is Operator profitability FACE 1--User experience Data rate is a way of providing a satisfactory user experience. Streaming music vidio, Picture phones, GPS location map functions require it. a) MOBILE ENVIRONMENT OR FIXED ENVIRONMENT 1XEV RTT provides it to some extent with Rev 0 at 153Kbps data rates and moreso with Rev A at 307Kbps data rates. 1XEV DO provides it atw 2.4 Mbps data rates and fiture 4.8 Mbps data rates. GPRS also provides it to some extent with avg 30 to 50Mbps data rates. b) FIXED ONLY ENVIRONMENT: In a fixed location, 802.11b is very capable of providing good user experience at many Mbps FACE 2 --Operator Profitability. Broadlly speaking, it is data capacity that determines operator profitability. Operators must make a profit to survive. Because they compete with each other, they must sell their data capacity used for similar services at prices not two terribly different from each other. For different operators, covering a set area in a medium city, $100 million or so may provide adequate cell sites to cover the city. However, for a CDMA 1X RTT/ 1XEV DO operator, the capacity provided will be several times the capacity provided for a GSM/GPRS operator. 1) MOBILE EVNVIRONMENT OR FIXED ENVIRONMENT The CDMA2000 (1XEV RTT) service provides a very large data capacity. The 1X EV DO provides an even larger data capacity. UNFORTUNATELY, the GSM/GPRS service provides a very small data capacity.] 2) FIXED ENVIRONMENT The 802.11b service provides a very huge data capacity Given this situation, in a mobil environment, both the CDMA operators using 1XRTT and 1X EV DO and the GPRS operators can provide a satisfactory user experience for limited vidio user applications. For streaming music vidio, the GPRS just doesn't do well. A GPRS operator can spend more money and convert to W-CDMA and provide a little better experience than 1X RTT. Unfortunately, the GPRS operator cannot even come close to the revenue stream of the 1X RTT or 1XEV DO operator. AND THIS IS THE RUB!! In a fixed environment, GPRS still fails to compete economically, but there is the possibility of the GPRS operator installing seamless blanket 802.11b coverage in fixed locations such as office buildings, airports,rerstaurants and public places. the 802.11b coverage. The GPRS operator can thus make a profit on high data rate applications in those fixed locations. On the other hand, tthe CDMA 1XRTT or 1XEV DO operator can also supplement his capacity in a fixed environment by offering seamless 802.11b. Thus we see Voice Stream, realizing that its GPRS just doesn't have the capacity to allow it to compete profitably, contracting with StarBucks to install 802.11b in their stores. If GPRS won't compete economically in a mobile environment, at least supplementing it with 802.11b will allow them to compete profitably in a fixed public location. Unfortunately for VoiceStream we now see 802.11b competition by Boingo springing up. Small 802.11b operators can simply affiliate with Boingo and sell a nation wide 802.11b service to consumers. Boingo could even conceivably offer the service through Sprint (as QCOM ASICS do incorporate 802.11b reception) or Verizon. Thus the "3G on the cheap" strategy of VoiceStream is a little fuzzy because it appears to have zero competative advantage in fixed locations and a huge competative disadvantage in mobile situations. Clearly Boingo, if it grows will become an acquisition target for the GSM crowd. The more sane solution for GSM operators is ti simply switch to GSM 1X rather than follow the GPRS/WCDMA path. This way, the GSM operators acquire the CDMA air interface with its huge data capacity and can compete profitably with CDMA 1XRTT/ CDMA 1X EV DO operators. In Europe, where socialism discourages competition, GSM operators will only need to compete successfully with each other.