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Strategies & Market Trends : MARKET INDEX TECHNICAL ANALYSIS - MITA -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: robert b furman who wrote (11501)	4/7/2002 12:35:36 PM
From: dvdw©	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 19219

Thanks for this post Bob; I enjoyed it. This part deserves attention; To hypothecate that Arab oil money may not be coming to America like it has in the past - is a no brainer.I'm sure the freezing of Al Queda Assets struck a uncomfortable fear - even if they were not of question.In a time of an embargo - one would want all of one's assets home and safe. For the Dollar to not have its normal bouyancy during a spike in oil price is not too hard to figure out what is missing.Arab money flows. The Arab states who disconnect from spending money in the US, are following a predictable path. That path is a sign of the contradictions in their societies as a whole. On the one hand the BIG $ is narrowly controlled by small numbers of players, who have left their social systems to the affairs and predeliction of mullahs. This disconnect manifests itself in strange but predictable ways, Arab states have been net beneficiaries of Technical achievement, yet they have never really imported the means to that achievement, and in fact are quite Like Luddites in their societal construction. Disconnecting to progress, by disengaging capital, will hasten the overall disruption in their own societies. This will produce unforeseen consequences for the leaderships of these countries. As they take well invested capital and place it into the Social spheres, they will empower those spheres, and those spheres being unproductive, will harm these states when they can least afford it. The OIL patch is in flux, things are changing, IMO Arab leaders will not be able to reconstruct the loss of market share they will face by threatening developing economies with embargoes of oil and money, they will hasten their own demise. These states could very well end up in the hands of 17th century mullahs where war and suffering become their key export.