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Technology Stocks : All About Sun Microsystems -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Charles Tutt who wrote (48105)	4/7/2002 2:47:19 PM
From: CYBERKEN	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 64865

IMO, one of the biggest mistakes you can make in investing is to assume that the status quo will last forever. Today there are many intelligent investors who believe the bear market and recession will last into our great-grandchildrens' retirement. There is, of course, no need for a passionate argument over predictions of the future, because no one on either side has a leg to stand on. Pessimists like I describe sometimes manage to seem like they were fully-invested all along when the market moves up, and those who managed to hide in cash ever since the early 90's have been the ones most hurt by the last decade. So we can appreciate these pessimists for contributing to the critical wall of worry that allows for the stability of growing capital markets. But, as for the subtle suggestions that the technology tsunami that has been exploding for over twenty years is now subsiding, I can't help but be a bit skeptical, to say the least. What I have learned (the hard way) about investing is that you virtually always lose if you buy into mediocre management, and usually profit, long term, doing the opposite. The common myths that have arisen in the last 6-12 months create, IMO, a buying opportunity in well-run companies, whether they have bottomed or not: 1) American accounting is grossly deficient, perhaps even corrupt. Nothing could be further from the truth. 2) Every private sector entrepreneur is out to do nothing more than lie to and rob investors. Those legitimately bad apples are sure famous today-a sign, to me, that their game is up for the time being. 3) America can only be saved by overtaxing the public and their employers and running a deflationary surplus for the next 10-20 years. This one may still get us, but there is more than a little hope. Bottom line: We can't tell 'cause it ain't happened yet, but a "next wave" to the current recession is by no means assured...