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Politics : War -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Eashoa' M'sheekha who wrote (13385)	4/7/2002 4:39:20 PM
From: alan w	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 23908

Support for Castro and Arafat does not agree with your claim. It seems more on the verge of undermining our efforts. Have a good one KCFOS. alan w

To: Eashoa' M'sheekha who wrote (13385)	4/7/2002 5:06:05 PM
From: Tadsamillionaire	Respond to of 23908

Worst-Case Scenario The potential disaster: how the crisis could push the region's armies into a conflict beyond their control By Edward N. Luttwak Few still hope that Yasser Arafat could ever be Israel's partner in peace, but many now feel that his predicament could become the catalyst of a much larger conflict. If it began to unfold, it could unleash pent-up forces and take on a disastrous momentum of its own. When the possibility arose that Arafat might be killed in the ruins of his headquarters, there was undisguised panic among Arab governments. What they dreaded also greatly alarmed their European counterparts, as well as the U.S. and even the Israelis themselves: uncontrollable mass demonstrations in Arab capitals that might compel reluctant rulers to try to attack Israel in turn. How would it begin? In one grim scenario, it would start with Egypt's Hosni Mubarak, who is in the most exposed position of all. His controlled media have long been replete with fervent anti-Israeli propaganda in a deliberate attempt to deflect attention from corruption and mismanagement at home. Endless television replays of the most brutal scenes of the Israeli occupation have hammered home the message that Egypt's most urgent concern is the plight of the Palestinians. At the same time, what is still a military-based regime justifies large expenditures on the armed forces amid extreme poverty by boasting of their strength. Mubarak therefore risks becoming the prisoner of his own propaganda: If Palestine is all-important and Egypt that strong, why not use its strength against the Israelis? The least dangerous Egyptian move would be disastrous in its consequences. Violating Anwar Sadat's peace treaty, cutting itself off from vital U.S. aid, the Egyptian army could send part of its vast forces--say, the four tank divisions and eight mechanized divisions with 1,600 battle tanks, including first-line U.S. M1A1s--into the Sinai peninsula to threaten the Israeli frontier. Compelling the Israelis to mobilize their own army, which would very likely freeze any further action against the Palestinians, would make sense as a piece of military gamesmanship. But strategically it would be catastrophic, because if the Egyptians acted, Syria's young and insecure President Bashar Assad would most likely feel compelled to compete with them by sending his own armored forces--seven divisions with 2,000 tanks--to threaten the Golan frontier. And then even King Abdullah of Jordan, who greatly values his peace treaty with Israel, might come under irresistible pressure from his Palestinian subjects to send his two armored and two mechanized divisions, equipped with some 700 tanks, opposite the Jordanian frontier. None of this need be done with any intention of actually fighting to provoke a war nonetheless. Other Arab governments could be propelled by a mounting spiral of popular enthusiasm to send their own forces to reinforce the frontline states. That would cue Saddam Hussein to demand his opportunity to send armored forces to threaten Israel by marching through Jordan or Syria or both. The King of Jordan would dread such contaminating assistance in his territory, and Assad of Syria too would fear it, but if the rhetorical escalation of the leaders and popular agitation heat up the climate, it might become impossible to deny passage to Iraqi forces in part because they might bring with them the chemical or even biological weapons that evoke the special enthusiasm of Hamas and other fundamentalists. Finally, there is the Hizballah militia in southern Lebanon, already deployed close to Israel's northern frontier with hundreds of bombardment rockets ready to strike as far away as the port city of Haifa. More Article AT.... time.com

To: Eashoa' M'sheekha who wrote (13385)	4/7/2002 5:28:00 PM
From: Thomas M.	Respond to of 23908

Have you all reached the point where you cannot even fathom questioning your leader's positions and actions? Yes, that about sums up the collective attitude. Tom

To: Eashoa' M'sheekha who wrote (13385)	4/7/2002 6:46:23 PM
From: epsteinbd	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 23908

What else are we people doing "but questioning (our) leaders positions and attitudes?" Some more : what is Powell going to do in Spain ? "The Plaza de Torros is full of ranks and ranks of affictionados who think they know, but there is only one who knows, and he is the one who fights the bull" JFK. Next posture Athens ? With Killer Clown's strong words about Democracy yelled from the Parthenon to the most Eastern Winds. Bush needs time... so, let's talk some.