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Strategies & Market Trends : Booms, Busts, and Recoveries -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: tradermike_1999 who wrote (17941)	4/8/2002 11:41:34 PM
From: pezz	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 74559

<<There are three types of people buying stocks right now. People who don't know much about the market and don't know any better. Desperate gamblers who need stocks to go up and are doubling down to make up their losses. And finally the totally insane.>> My God does the writer of that report have an ego that big? << LIQUIDITY SO WEAK THAT ANY SIGNIFICANT BAD NEWS WILL CREATE MAJOR SELL-OFF. >> umm, Do they mean if a surprise ,like say, IBM pre announced a bad QT on the same day an oil shortfall was seen ??

To: tradermike_1999 who wrote (17941)	4/9/2002 12:09:42 PM
From: westpacific	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 74559

US not seeing housing market bubble! What is this guy smoking! He has got to be joking, prices dictate a bubble, affordablity is out of the ROOOOOOF! Look were he is from - The Mortgage Bankers Assoc. This proves what I am telling everyone, the news is not to be trusted as everyone has an agenda to fill. Listen to economists like Shiller at Yale, thus an unbiased opinion! By Aleksandrs Rozens CHICAGO, April 8, (Reuters) - U.S. home prices, which have risen over recent years, are not seeing a bubble in valuations the way many technology companies listed on the Nasdaq experienced a ballooning in share prices because the housing industry has not overbuilt the way it did in the late 1980s, an economist at a conference here said. ADVERTISEMENT ``There is not a housing bubble. I am not a proponent of the bubble theory,'' Douglas Duncan, chief economist at the Mortgage Bankers Association of America, a mortgage banking trade group, told Reuters. Some industry participants and observers have wondered how long can price gains in U.S. housing be sustained, especially as the nation's economy struggles to crawl out of its recent slowdown. But Duncan cites several factors behind the lack of overbuilding, among them a rise in the costs of development tied to environmental restrictions as well as the fact that many homebuilders are public companies whose managers have to answer to shareholders keeping an eye on their business. ``Time to bring properties to market and cost of bringing properties to market are going to inhibit the rapid ramp up of supply and will moderate, over time, the trend in supply growth,'' said Duncan. Additionally, the top 100 builders - some public and some private - control about 30 percent of the market and, of those, a fair share are publicly traded companies, said Duncan. Stockholders of public companies will be sensitive to the overbuilding for fear of being caught with too large an inventory of homes to sell and managers at the homebuilders are aware of these concerns, Duncan said. ``We went through a recession and we did not go through a 4-1/2 month supply in either new or existing homes. That is just unheard of in a recessionary environment, said Duncan, adding ''In a recession typically supply is 8 to 12 months.`` And while supply has been curbed by caution among homebuilders as well as environmental issues, demand likely will not sink even if rates rise from their historic lows of last fall. This demand, which will shore up prices, is tied to demographics, said the MBA chief economist. ``Demographics are also a major factor, if not the major factor. If you look at 2000 census data and structures of households, in the age cohort where the head of the household is in the 45 to 54 year-old bracket, you have about 20.7 million households. The next younger group, 35 to 44, there are 24.4 million households,'' according to Duncan. He added that members of this slightly younger group promise to be a notable source of demand for the housing industry. ``The home ownership rate for the 45 to 54 year old bracket is 76 percent. For the 35 to 44 year old group it is 67 percent. They have 9 percentage point lower home ownership rate. That's a huge number of people coming into the market to buy homes,'' said Duncan. ``On the demand side there is a significant bulge of demand that will keep coming for the next ten years or so,'' he said, adding that demand is sure to be bolstered by immigrant populations looking for housing.