SI
SI
discoversearch

We've detected that you're using an ad content blocking browser plug-in or feature. Ads provide a critical source of revenue to the continued operation of Silicon Investor.  We ask that you disable ad blocking while on Silicon Investor in the best interests of our community.  If you are not using an ad blocker but are still receiving this message, make sure your browser's tracking protection is set to the 'standard' level.
Strategies & Market Trends : VOLTAIRE'S PORCH-MODERATED -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?


To: Jim Willie CB who wrote (49749)4/8/2002 1:26:17 PM
From: stockman_scott  Respond to of 65232
 
Market Watch --A Sampling of Advisory Opinion

April 8th, 2002
HighLevelCharts.com
P.O Box 3216, High Level, Alberta T0H 1Z0 Canada
E-mail: gaea@telusplanet.net

APRIL 1 ~ With refineries running at a very high rate of operation (itself dangerous if carried on for too long), how much more can be squeezed out from an aging system which has not seen additional capacity built for approximately two decades? Clearly, there is something dangerous here and price action is telling us this unequivocally. While we are not stating that what happened in California last summer regarding electricity prices is about to happen with gasoline, we note the unpleasant similarities. The legitimate question is simply what happens to the emerging U.S. economic recovery if gasoline continues to spike?

-- Gerry Agnew

RBC Dain Rauscher Market Commentary
2711 N. Haskell Ave., Dallas, Texas 75204
E-mail: bill.barker@rbcdain.com

APRIL 1 ~ One of the current concerns is the sudden surge in energy prices and the worry that the rising cost of energy might abort the economic recovery. The OPEC cartel has been remarkably successful in maintaining its cutback discipline, but we do not believe they will let prices run to the level that worldwide economic activity suffers. The Mideast is an incredibly volatile area, particularly now, so oil prices may remain firm for the near term. Longer term, there is substantial overcapacity in the world, and prices are expected to remain stable at levels below the current price. We do not regard this as a significant threat to the market or inflation.

-- William E. Barker Jr.

Cantor Morning News
101 Park Ave., New York, N.Y. 10178
Website: www.cantor.com

APRIL 1 ~ Perhaps the most devastating blow came from comments by that well-known market analyst, Regis Philbin. Regis called in to CNBC prior to the open to offer insights on why individuals are, and should be, staying away from stocks. Apparently Regis got burned in his stock holdings, and couldn't be a guest on his own show, "Who Wants To Be A Millionaire?" This was touted as being the "popular opinion" among average investors. This has got to be good news for the market! The more pervasive the pessimism, the better the contrarian outlook for the short-term rally.

-- Marc Pado

Stealth Stocks
P.O. Box 290708, Brooklyn, N.Y. 11229
E-mail: update@stealthstocksonline.com

APRIL 1 ~ Analysts could well be low-balling their forecasts. This way if earnings disappoint, the analysts look better. If earnings do better than expected, the market will react very favorably, and this could well be the case once we start to see real numbers. However, auditors are now running scared due to the problems with Enron. It is very likely that most financial statements may reflect a more conservative tone. It is uncertain to what degree this may affect first-quarter earnings, but investors have been very cautious in the last three weeks as the earnings season approaches.

-- Dennis Slothower

Market Clues
P.O. Box 150249, Austin, Texas 78715
E-mail: bcarver@yahoo.com

APRIL 1 ~ Probably the key to whether we get another leg down is the Federal Reserve. Alan Greenspan's chief worry is inflation. There are some people (including us) who feel the greatest danger is deflation. Alan is getting close to retirement and we wish him well, but we respectfully suggest that exiting the stage now would help preserve him a favorable mention in the history books, especially if the next leg down in the bear market comes about because the Fed starts raising interest rates and precipitates a worse recession/depression.

-- Bob Carver

The Lancz Letter
2400 N. Reynolds Rd., Toledo, Ohio 43615
E-mail: abl@ablonline.com

APRIL 2 ~ We feel that the market will still be a matter of the haves and the have-nots. The real companies with solid balance sheets and cash flow will find [enthusiastic] buyers, while the companies at the opposite end of the spectrum will continue to struggle. We note that this thought is becoming the consensus and that is why stocks like Johnson & Johnson continue to hit new highs while the battered tech/telecoms have yet to see the light at the end of the tunnel. In becoming the consensus, we feel the potential looking forward will be in the companies that have declined due to guilt by association, and we have started taking advantage of this.

-- Alan B. Lancz



To: Jim Willie CB who wrote (49749)4/8/2002 2:03:05 PM
From: stockman_scott  Respond to of 65232
 
Powell Visit Pressures Arab Leaders

The Associated Press
Sunday, April 7, 2002; 3:19 PM

RIYADH, Saudi Arabia –– When Colin Powell meets with moderate Arab leaders this week, they will discuss not only Israel's offensive against the Palestinians, but also how it has raised the pitch of anti-American sentiment throughout the Middle East.

Their language will be more diplomatic, but Arab leaders want the U.S. secretary of state to understand the rage behind the chants of "Death to Israel! Death to America!" that have been ringing out across the region in the past week.

Powell, dispatched by President Bush to heighten U.S. involvement in Mideast peacemaking, meets with three key moderate leaders – Saudi Arabia's Crown Prince Abdullah, Egypt's Hosni Mubarak and Jordan's King Abdullah – in a mission that begins Monday in Morocco and takes him to Israel at the end of the week.

Ahead of his arrival, some 350,000 demonstrators marched in the Moroccan capital on Sunday to show their support for Palestinians. There were smaller protests elsewhere, including Lebanon, Syria and Bahrain.

The Arab world has been in an uproar since Israel confined Palestinian leader Yasser Arafat to his compound in the West Bank and began a sweep of Palestinian areas for the militants behind a series of suicide bombings against Israel.

In some cases the protests have been violent.

In Jordan, an 11-year-old Palestinian died Sunday of injuries suffered in a clash between riot police and anti-Israel demonstrators in his refugee settlement.

In Bahrain, the death Sunday of a protester who was hit by a rubber bullet during a demonstration outside the U.S. Embassy prompted another protest through the streets of the Bahraini capital.

In nearly every outburst of anger, Arabs blame the United States as much as Israel, saying the Bush administration has given the Jewish state the green light.

"The demonstrations have put a squeeze on the governments. They are feeling the heat of the protests," said Abdel-Khaleq Abdullah, a political analyst speaking from the United Arab Emirates.

"The rage is phenomenal," said Jamal Khashoggi, deputy editor-in-chief of the Saudi daily Arab News. "We see pictures on television we didn't see in previous Arab confrontations with Israel, like Israel's 1982 invasion of Lebanon."

"What's happening in Palestine is creating suicide-bombers everywhere, not only in Palestine," he added.

Powell was scheduled to meet Monday with Moroccan King Mohammed VI and Saudi Arabia's Abdullah, who has a palace near the city of Casablanca and is currently in Morocco. A senior official in the Bush administration said Powell will warn them they will bear responsibility if terrorism continues.

Bush wants his Arab allies to compel Arafat to crack down on Palestinian militants. But that is a request Arab leaders are not likely to endorse, at least not publicly.

In a speech last week at the University of Oklahoma, Prince Bandar bin Sultan, Saudi Arabia's ambassador to Washington, said it makes no sense to ask Arafat to "stop the violence in the occupied territories while the Israeli forces are destroying all his security apparatus and killing and detaining his security officers."

"No leader in the world can guarantee 100 percent that no one will resort to violence," Bandar said. "But I can guarantee 100 percent that a desperate and oppressed person whose dignity has been insulted and who is willing to die cannot be stopped by any means."

Emirati political analyst Abdullah said Arab governments have lived up only to the "minimum expectations" of the masses, who want more concrete action, such as an oil embargo, a withdrawal of Arab ambassadors from Washington and other actions that could hurt U.S. economic interests in the region. That position is echoed in letters and opinions pieces across the Arab world.

The analyst Abdullah said the Arab leaders cannot ignore the sentiments on the street and should make it clear to Powell "that a genocide is taking place in Palestine."

"The leaders should hold the president of the United States, the American administration and the Americans politically and morally responsible for this genocide," he said, adding they should point out that the United States will lose "all its interests and friends if it does not do anything."

© 2002 The Associated Press



To: Jim Willie CB who wrote (49749)4/8/2002 3:31:54 PM
From: stockman_scott  Respond to of 65232
 
Offensive Won't Stop, Sharon Says

By Mohammed Daraghmeh
Associated Press Writer
Monday, April 8, 2002; 12:10 PM

NABLUS, West Bank –– Israel's offensive in the West Bank will continue, despite U.S. demands for an immediate withdrawal of troops, Prime Minister Ariel Sharon told parliament Monday, as helicopter gunships pounded a Palestinian refugee camp and a fire broke out during fighting near Bethlehem's Church of the Nativity.

Addressing a special session of the Knesset, Sharon said he has promised President Bush to expedite the campaign, now in its 11th day.

Turning to the Arab world, Sharon said he was willing to meet with Arab leaders without preconditions to discuss a comprehensive peace agreement. Sharon branded Palestinian leader Yasser Arafat the head of a "regime of terror."

Later Monday, U.S. envoy Anthony Zinni met with Sharon, U.S. officials said.

Secretary of State Colin Powell, meanwhile, demanded "a clear statement from Israel that they are beginning to withdraw" from Palestinian territories and "to do it now." Powell, speaking after a meeting in Agadir, Morocco, with King Mohammed VI, said he had asked the king to counsel Arafat to halt violence against Israelis, and said he hopes to see the Palestinian leader later in the week.

The heaviest fighting raged in the West Bank city of Nablus and the Jenin refugee camp where hundreds of gunmen have been battling Israeli soldiers. Israeli officials estimated that more than 100 Palestinians have been killed in Jenin camp. Two Israeli soldiers were killed and one was seriously wounded in the camp Monday.

The armed men "seem to have decided to fight to the last, to make the battle as bloody as possible," said the Israeli commander in the area, Brig. Gen. Eyal Shline.

He said many houses in the camp were booby-trapped and that several men with explosives strapped to their bodies have blown themselves up in suicide attacks.

Before daybreak Monday, Israeli attack helicopters began firing missiles at the camp after militants ignored calls to surrender. Jamal Abdel Salam, a camp resident and activist in the Islamic militant Hamas group, said army bulldozers flattened homes, and that dozen of houses had already been destroyed.

By early afternoon, Israeli forces controlled almost the entire camp, the army said. The Israeli military said about 150 men put down their weapons and emerged from the camp early Monday. Abdel Salam said only women, children and the elderly left the camp. The militants were staying put, ready to fight to the death, he said.

In Nablus, the West Bank's largest city, smoke rose from the Old City, a densely populated maze of stone buildings and narrow streets. Army officials said troops controlled about half of the Old City, and that dozens of gunmen surrendered Monday.

In one rubble-covered alley, gunmen were trying to pull a seriously wounded comrade to safety. One of the rescuers was shot in the leg and fell over the wounded man before both were carried away as helicopters fired from machine guns. The incident Sunday was witnessed by Associated Press Television News cameraman Nazeeh Darwazeh, who also saw two bodies lying in the streets, including that of Ahmed Tabouk, a local vigilante feared by many in the Old City.

In Bethlehem, Israeli troops ringing the Church of the Nativity exchanged fire with armed Palestinians holed up in the shrine, built over Jesus' traditional birth grotto. A senior Israeli army officer, speaking on condition of anonymity, said two border policemen who were shot and wounded by Palestinians threw a smoke grenade into the compound, sparking a fire.

A Palestinian policeman, who was trying to extinguish the fire, was shot and killed by an Israeli sniper, a fellow policeman in the compound said.

Israeli officials and senior Franciscans in Rome, whose clerics are among those inside, appeared increasingly at odds as the standoff stretched into a seventh day.

Sharon told parliament that soldiers would surround the church until the gunmen release the clerics, whom he described as hostages, and surrender. The Franciscans accused Israel of violating a pledge not to attack the church. Church officials said the clerics were not hostages and would remain in the compound.

The fire burned for about an hour in a second-floor meeting hall above the courtyard of St. Katherine's, a Roman Catholic church adjacent to the Church of the Nativity. The fire destroyed a piano, chairs, altar cloths and ceremonial cups in the meeting hall, clerics said. Israeli troops searched Palestinian firefighters who came to extinguish the blaze. The firefighters were eventually allowed to go to Manger Square and put out the fire by spraying water over the compound's wall.

More than 200 armed Palestinians have been holed up in the church compound for seven days, ringed by Israeli forces. Israeli soldiers have been using loudspeakers to demand that the gunmen surrender, but they have refused to come out. The army has said troops would not storm the church.

A spokesman for the office of the Custodian of Catholic sites in the Holy Land characterized Monday's incident as an Israeli attack. "I've been warning for days now that an attack is imminent and on behalf of my brothers calling on the church and the world to intervene with the Israeli government," the Rev. David Jaeger told APTN in Rome.

In Jerusalem, Sharon told Israel's parliament in a speech frequently interrupted by heckling – mainly from Arab legislators – that the 11-day-old offensive would continue until Palestinian militias have been crushed.

"These missions have not been completed yet, and the army will continue operating as quickly as possible until the mission has been completed, until it has dismantled Arafat's terror infrastructure and until the murderers hiding in different places have been arrested," Sharon said.

After the operation is over, Israeli forces will withdraw to buffer zones in the West Bank, he said, but added that "the places we leave must have a responsible Palestinian leadership that will take over the areas."

Sharon appeared to be suggesting that he would only do business with Palestinians not affiliated with the Palestinian Authority, which he has branded a terrorist entity.

Referring to Sharon, Palestinian Cabinet Minister Saeb Erekat said that "the man's endgame all along was to dismantle the Palestinian Authority," and that Israel would not find Palestinians to go along with such a plan.

Erekat said Sharon was defying the United States by refusing to stop the offensive immediately.

In Israel, though, there was a widespread feeling that the Bush Administration was quietly acquiescing to a few more days for the Israeli offensive.

"While (Bush) calls for an Israeli pullout 'without delay' ... his secretary of state travels to the region in a slow, weeklong glide, even though the Americans know only his physical presence might block 'Operation Defensive Shield,'" wrote commentator Chemi Shalev in Maariv.

Powell plans to arrive in Israel and the Palestinian areas later this week, after visiting with leaders in Morocco, Egypt, Spain and Jordan.

Israeli troops and tanks began rumbling into the West Bank on March 29, beginning a massive hunt for weapons, explosives and militants who have terrorized Israel with a series of suicide bombings and other attacks.

More than 1,500 Palestinians have been arrested by Israel since then, including 500 to 600 fugitives, among them 70 to 80 involved in planning attacks on Israelis, Israeli military officials said. Troops have confiscated 2,000 rifles and uncovered 15 labs for making explosives, the officials said.

In his speech to parliament, Sharon also said he was willing to meet with Arab leaders anywhere without preconditions to discuss a Mideast peace proposal. He said a recent pan-Arab call for Israel's withdrawal from all occupied Arab lands in exchange for comprehensive peace, had "positive elements."

But he said Israel cannot accept a return of Palestinian refugees, an issue Arab nations say must be resolved before they establish normal relations with Israel.

Along Israel's northern border, exchanges of fire between Lebanese guerrillas and Israeli forces injured seven Israeli soldiers Sunday, the military said. Additional reservists would be sent to the Lebanese-Israeli border area, the military said.

© 2002 The Associated Press