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Politics : Formerly About Applied Materials -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Fred Levine who wrote (62762)	4/8/2002 2:38:16 PM
From: Jacob Snyder	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 70976

Now shorting AMAT: see FD thread. I agree, the stock split announcement was a message, that management sees good times ahead. And, I agree, they are in the best position of anyone to know this, and I have a huge amount of respect for AMAT management. As I've said repeatedly, I think that, going forward, we no longer need to fear earnings season, as I expect (in general, with most sectors except the telecom/telecom-equips) companies will meet or beat. But........ It's in the stock. In the 50s, the rosy scenario is fully priced into AMAT. Further, I think that the news is going to be dominated by bad news that increases investor's uncertainties. This earnings season, I think we're going to be watching CNN, not CNBC. And that can't be good for stocks. We're going to be hearing a lot of posts that say, "Hey, they just beat estimates and raised guidance, how come the stock just fell 10%?".

To: Fred Levine who wrote (62762)	4/8/2002 2:39:35 PM
From: Cary Salsberg	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 70976

OT Fred, You do know that Sharon is not the dictator of Israel. His Foreign and Defense Ministers are from Labor, Barak and Rabin's party. Sharon has offered to meet with Arab leaders to discuss the proposal made by the Saudis. The people of Israel are strongly behind the incursion. 95% of the 31,000 reservists called up reported, an unusually high % I resent your balanced treatment of Sharon and Arafat. I haven't heard you say that the only thing Bin Laden knows is terrorism and the only thing Bush knows is smart bombs.

To: Fred Levine who wrote (62762)	4/8/2002 3:34:09 PM
From: michael97123	Respond to of 70976

Fred re mideast Please note spanish diplomat who asked the nobel committee to take back the peace prize from Shimon Peres who has spent is whole life working for peace. Of course arafat deserves it. some thoughtsI have a "friend in govt" who i often discuss strategy with and we both think there is an outside chance that what Israel is doing is clearing the swamp of terrorists and they have the tacit support of the US and perhaps even moderate Arab leaders who hate arafat. When they pull out of the cities and back to the Palestinian side of the Israel border who will do the policing and create the infrastructure for a new Palestinaian state that may be declared early on? Some say Nato or US troops. Perhaps Muslim forces from more moderate countries, even some arab ones. Arabs must be on the right side of history in the war on terrorism. Can the war on terrorism ultimately produce some economic advances and political freedom? Maybe like in most conventional wars someone has to clearly win/lose so peace can come. Look at MacArthur and Japan right after Hiroshima and Nagasaki. Same with West Germany. Could Sharon be such a leader? Could Bush admin be so smart? Can the Saudi plan be the basis for peace after all? Can the Israelis be lucky enough to avoid a Bibi PM? mike