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Technology Stocks : Nokia (NOK) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: JohnG who wrote (19413)	4/8/2002 6:00:43 PM
From: carranza2	Respond to of 34857

This is a tough thread. You get insulted by Eric any time he decides something is unfavorable to NOK Everyone who pays his fees has a right to be heard at SI. No one, however, can purchase the right to be taken seriously. I really don't think that there was any great initial conspiratorial effort to sell the operators a bill of goods The Europeans clearly attempted to replicate their GSM success with UMTS, and had no interest in paying royalties to Qualcomm. The fly in the ointment which ruined the plan was the huge cost of new spectrum, which now hangs like a sword over all of European telecomm. The Europeans wanted to have a nice, leisurely scamper to UMTS paid for by success in GPRS and EDGE. They did not foresee the difficulties caused by the huge costs of spectrum as well as the unanticipated delays on the technological side. All of this has been compounded by the leisurely European bureaucratic approach to standards. The smooth Tinkers-to-Evers-to-Chance transition which the Europeans expected got gummed up technologically, standards-wise, and financially. As a result, whether they'll be able to replicate their GSM success is up in the air. The real kicker is that the QCDMA technologies indisputably gives them a bigger bang for their buck in both capacity and present availability. Unfortunately, they're simply too far down the wrong road to change directions. The Europeans did not have any significant CDMA expertise yet felt capable of bringing to life a technology which is even more complicated than Q's version. Some people call that hubris. Others call it stupid. All of this will be irrelevant if Nokia saves the day later this year. I root for it to succeed as I can't wait for 3G royalties. If past is prologue, and Dr. J. (who is unfairly lambasted here by folks who have not achieved .01% of what he has done) is correct, we'll be waiting a lot longer for any meaningful royalties. When Dr. J. said that UMTS won't be out in force for 3 or 4 more years, he said so knowing full well that such a statement does not help Qualcomm's stock price. This by itself gives it the ring of truth. He has probably given up all hope that QCDMA will be the prevalent 3G standard.