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Strategies & Market Trends : Stock Attack II - A Complete Analysis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Secret_Agent_Man who wrote (33931)	4/8/2002 11:47:21 PM
From: Square_Dealings	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 52237

You'll love this one. "every one of the last six monthly employment reports was subsequently revised downward" Here is an important article (Comstock) Watch Those Revisions! Making investment decisions on the basis of any immediate release may be dangerous to your financial heath as subsequent revisions often make the initial number look like a rough guess. For instance, according to fallstreet.com, every one of the last six monthly employment reports was subsequently revised downward. The February report, first hailed as a major sign of economic recovery, initially showed a 66,000 gain in employment, but a month later was reduced to a reduction of 2,000. Over the past six months the first number turned out to be overstated by an average of 37,667 per month. For the entire period employment was therefore overstated by a total of 220,000. The first optimistic release is usually given big headlines in print and a lot of publicity on the financial TV shows, but the revisions are usually buried in the fine print or, in some cases, not mentioned at all. Incidentally, the odds against six consecutive negative revisions are 64-to-1. Have you noticed that with this so-called economic recovery barely underway and the stock market still below the level where monetary ease was initiated, stocks are already rallying on prospects for a softer economy and a delay of a tighter money policy? We believe those rooting against a rise in the short rate will get their wish, but only at the expense of a weaker economy and further disappointments in earnings. This outcome can only be extremely negative for a market still selling at 44 times trailing earnings.