To: bobby beara who wrote (33935 ) 4/9/2002 9:45:07 AM From: TechTrader42 Respond to of 52237 bobby: Yesterday, the Naz went under the 50% retracement level from the Sept. low and Jan. high. I don't know whether that'll mean that it'll head to the 61.8% level next. As you know, I've been getting shorter-term buy signals in my own system recently, but the longer term doesn't look as good. As you've pointed out, there have been signs of an improving economy, but rising oil prices, among other things (such as high valuations and accounting issues), raise questions. It's not really a matter of what you or I think (at least it's certainly not a matter of what I think, because I can't predict the future). The market will go where it goes. It's not a matter of persuading anyone to see any point of view. Some have suggested that the market might move sideways for a quite a while. They may be right, for all I know. I don't know about some of the text in the chart you linked to. The stuff about the bull market is more of an argument than a statement of fact. It all depends on one's time frame. You can call it whatever you like, and more power to you if you're making money. Maybe it would have been easier if you'd sold once and for all at the Jan. top. Who can say? We're all this together, trying to determine direction. The plain, simple truth is that it isn't easy. Your contributions to the effort are appreciated just as those of others are. In looking at it together, maybe we achieve some sort of balance (and I think you mentioned that goal last night). What's my best guess, based on my own limited, unreliable system (and I mean that)? That there might be opportunities for some bounces in the short term, but over the long term, sentiment is still too high. Will the system turn out to be right? I really have no idea. If I were investing for the long term, I'd hold off at this point. Am I mistaken? I'd say there's a 50/50 chance that I am.