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Strategies & Market Trends : Zeev's Turnips - No Politics -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?


To: LiPolymer who wrote (48867)4/9/2002 8:58:42 AM
From: mishedlo  Read Replies (2) | Respond to of 99280
 
Crooks is simple.
The fact that month after month after month stocks are driven to max pay, usually after some obscene ramp job (where ad boys short) then take it quickly down on a series of gap downs and selloffs lasting all day. Options speculation is driving the market.

I have taken advantage of this but not enoygh.
This month was very tough because we did not deviate much from max pain for the entire month. Low VIX VXN is evidence of this months non-volatility.

Delta hedging kicks in when we deviate too far from max pain (AT EXPIRY) one way or the other. It can be either way. If the crooks sold a lot of puts that are in the money, then they have to short to protect that position. This is delta hedging short. Of course as they short more and more to protect the puts they sold we plunge even more.

The reverse happens on the way up. Then after expiry we can continue up or down where the crooks cover at the top and short again or at the bottom and go long. In the case of August we just kept plunging for a month and in Nov we just kept rising for 2 months. Those are the extreme cases.

M