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Politics : Formerly About Applied Materials -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Hayduke who wrote (62783)	4/9/2002 10:31:18 AM
From: Cary Salsberg	Respond to of 70976

I don't believe the lows will be retested! I also don't believe that there will be another attack like 9/11! The recession is over! Technology growth will lag because of the bubble hangover, but the direction has turned up and will continue slowly in that direction. I have tried to continue to accumulate and to use covered calls to lower my average cost. With current valuations and the business situation, I am not concerned that stocks will run away from me. My view might change in the 4th quarter. I added cash in February which took me from under 20% cash in brokerage accounts to 30-35% cash. I have committed about 16% of the cash since then.

To: Hayduke who wrote (62783)	4/9/2002 11:30:40 AM
From: Sam Citron	Respond to of 70976

I also doubt that the lows will be retested absent an exogenous shock of greater psychological and financial magnitude than 9/11. Certainly a mideast boil causing crude to go over $50 would have a substantial dampening effect on the nascent recovery, but I think "cartel cheating" would prevent a sustained rise, given the crude supply situation and cash needs of the oil exporting regions. Absent either of these two scenarios, I see no reason why recovery earnings should not eventually catch up with presently cheery valuations in the semi-equips.