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Strategies & Market Trends : Gorilla and King Portfolio Candidates -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Eric L who wrote (50945)	4/9/2002 5:25:05 PM
From: Eric L	Respond to of 54805

re: Clayton Christensen on “The Commoditization of Wireless Handsets” I started out todays CC with Clay by dutifully drawing his patented little diagram with an X,Y axis and plotting the "pace of innovation" v. "pace of improvement" ... Clay focused todays talk around the RIM Blackberry - "an innovative product with a nice simple app that allows users to kill time productively". I found it odd that Clayton said ... "5 years from now the industry will be dominated by industry standard open architecture" ... and never mentioned Nokia's role in the Open Mobile Architecture Initiative, or the strategy they are evolving around it ... Instead he said that ... The history of disruption shows that the big guys with tremendous resources (like Nokia) have to adjust to transition, and have difficulty doing so ... there large technology R&D resources become something of an impediment, so Nokia has a more torturous path than RIM. Nokia is best positioned to do it (make the transition) ... but nobodies ever done it. Someone asked Clay, "what do you think, Clay, of Nokia Symbian v. Microsoft SmartPhone 2002 over next 3 years" .... Wow ...... Well ..... if you go back to my diagram ............ ... Microsoft is trying to port Windows OS to the Stinger phone but the business model may be premature .... by packing Stinger so full of features there is lots of downside ... and by contrast the RIM blackberry starts with a nice single, simple, app. ... and, do you, Clay, think its easier for RIM to add voice to Blackberry. than it would be to add Blackberry functionality to a voice device... WOW .... why do I think that? ..... [I kind of missed what he thought when he finally got around to expressing it] ... when asked to comment on GSM GPRS etc. v. CDMA 1xRTT/1xEV-DV, Clayton commented: George Gilder unambiguously states that CDMA will eat GSM's lunch but in reality technology can arrive before users can really use it .... very often a conventional approach proceeds along at its pace and catches up by the time the user has the need ... bandwidth hungry applications are slow to come .... our lives just don't change that fast ... as fast as technology changes ... Nothing too earth-shattering, but a key statement was that ... "5 years from now the industry will be dominated by industry standard open architecture" .... ... which is where we are today ... ... so I'm not too sure I learned too much. - Eric -