[madtrader] Tue Apr 9, 12:11pm PDT $OEX.X This past few weeks has been strange. And today is certainly no exception. I tried to apply "normal" Fibonacci levels for the movements in the last 2 days, and they don't quite fit. So I had to look a step further. If we can regard the small bounce in the last hour or so as a turning point, it didn't do it in the normal levels. OEX turned up at the 23.6% retracement level (yesterday's low to this morning's high). Just goes to show the weakness in the market. A lot of people got caught being bullish (I have to admit I was confused then) a little over a week ago on that "reversal" day. After yesterday's come back, it was tough to imagine giving up nearly all of the move today. These are perhaps the market's way of hinting that traders shouldn't expect much of follow through. Breakouts and breakdowns are not reason enough to jump in with both feet on directional trades. Gains have to be taken quick. none
[madtrader] Mon Apr 8, 2:11pm PDT Money flow A reader asked me what kind of stocks would I consider leadership types. Well, if you are technical oriented trader, the single most important driver of stock prices is money flow. When money flows in, stocks tend to go up. Which is why I perform a daily scan of all stocks above $5 and has a daily average volume of at least 50,000 to find potential winners. And I am not at all surprised to find many of the names are also the current winners. I scan stock datas that goes back more than 1,000 trading days, then filter them again with the data from the last 75 days. The logic is that I want stocks that shows long term money in-flow as well as short term surge. The following is a list of names that came out of that scan. Since my long term scan came back with close to 300 matchs, I filter them down to names that trades more than 500,000 shares a day. And this narrows down to less than 30 names. You shouldn't base this alone as names to buy. It is a good starting point though. Here goes: KO, HLYW, HI, PG MMM, CBRL, TOL, ELON, LTR, HCR, RETK, CEFT, HC, KSS, THQI, JNY, MDY, ADVS, BLL, FDC, LMT, FRE, FNM, CTAS, KBH, K, THOR, THC, TRB, WEBM, INTU, WAG, RYL, CLX, APOL, DUK, HET, ETR, WFC, MYG, OI, GPT, GDW, ACDO, RDN, DGX. I am already long TOL, MMM, MDY, FDC, LMT, WEBM, APOL, GPT, ACDO, DGX. [madtrader] Mon Apr 8, 1:23pm PDT INTC Smith Barney's technical analyst downgraded INTC today based on technicals. Huh?!! Which chart is he looking at? One of the key points he made was the fact INTC traded below 200 DMA. I am afraid that I am embarrassed for my old firm. A firm that had a rich history in technical research by people like Alan Shaw, Louise Yamada. I don't know where this fellow got his training. The call, in my opinion is just amateurish. It doesn't take a seasoned technician to see that INTC is in the process of forming a bullish divergence. On top of that, when compared to other large cap tech generals, it has held up well. Granted it has under-performed the SOX index. But can anyone imagine a substantial rally in SOX without the participation of INTC? I don't see any problems with the SOX at all, and INTC should participate in the rebound of the group. I believe he just got rattled by IBM this morning. But that's not why people pay him the big bucks! Selling after the fact! none. [RumorDude] Mon Apr 8, 1:10pm PDT Market While I agree that todays move was pretty compelling for a reversal call, I am very concerned about the lack of volume. I'll expect jitters to continue with the middle east uncertainty and warnings. none [madtrader] Mon Apr 8, 1:03pm PDT Market All major indices closed at their highs. A very impressive key reversal day. I am particularly encouraged by how the big "generals" have performed. But let's not forget, during this correction, techs aren't the ones that held up. It's housing, financials (regional banks mostly), HMOs, leisure and business services type names that lead the way. I would continue looking for leaderships names out of these sectors. If you insists on tech, then look no further than semiconductors. none. [madtrader]
Mon Apr 8, 12:21pm PDT MSFT Monster bullish engulfing day here. If this isn't the bottom for this stock, I don't know what is.
madtrader] Mon Apr 8, 11:07am PDT CYMI AMAT VSEA SLAB Someone emailed me and asked what are the best semiconductor plays. Well, based on my own scans on money flow, these 4 names are getting the biggest in-flow. Needless to say some of the better charts too. long CYMI. [madtrader] Mon Apr 8, 11:05am PDT $OEX.X Punched through the 62% retracement level, less consolidation than I expected. Watch the fireworks fly. We are having a big short squeeze here. none. [madtrader] Mon Apr 8, 10:49am PDT $OEX.X OEX has ticked up to today's 62% retracement level and stopped. Fairly logical, as it should consolidate around here. Will probably drag QQQ back to 34 as well. I am going to use this chance to add to my longs. none. [madtrader] Mon Apr 8, 10:45am PDT QQQ Normally I would have taken my gains here. Since QQQ has indeed filled the gap. I had no idea what triggered this rally today. After checking some news items, I suppose the rally has merits. Bush's warning to Sharon, PLMD's investigation by the SEC over (I have my doubtbs over PLMD's innocense, but's that's irrelevant here), AMTD's merger with Datek (a very bullish indication), etc. On top of that, I am not convinced this "oil crisis" is really long lasting anyhow. And the MMM guide up last week confirms my blief that the economy is indeed much healthier than the Street wants to believe. Anyhow, the midway point for QQQ's Friday range is 34.70. If you use the gap as reference, that's also the 138% Fibonacci level. long QQQ. [madtrader] Mon Apr 8, 10:27am PDT $SOX.X SMH I am more than convinced now that we have indeed seen the low of this correction. SOX is showing a "loud" and clear bullish hammer on daily chart. On top of that, it's intraday low touched the 62% Fibonacci retracement level and rallied sharply off it. You can ask for a more logical setup here. You can go long SMH here. none. [madtrader] Mon Apr 8, 10:23am PDT $VIX.X $VXN.X BTW, I believe VIX has reach the peak of this cycle here. And both the VIX and VXN will show a clear bearish reverse divergence when compared to their Feb peaks. We should see VIX fall back below 20 coupled with a rally in the market. none |