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Strategies & Market Trends : Technical analysis for shorts & longs -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?


To: Johnny Canuck who wrote (36702)4/9/2002 3:26:40 PM
From: Johnny Canuck  Respond to of 67943
 
[madtrader]
Tue Apr 9, 12:11pm PDT $OEX.X
This past few weeks has been strange. And today is certainly no exception. I tried to apply "normal" Fibonacci levels for the movements in the last 2 days, and they don't quite fit. So I had to look a step further. If we can regard the small bounce in the last hour or so as a turning point, it didn't do it in the normal levels. OEX turned up at the 23.6% retracement level (yesterday's low to this morning's high). Just goes to show the weakness in the market. A lot of people got caught being bullish (I have to admit I was confused then) a little over a week ago on that "reversal" day. After yesterday's come back, it was tough to imagine giving up nearly all of the move today. These are perhaps the market's way of hinting that traders shouldn't expect much of follow through. Breakouts and breakdowns are not reason enough to jump in with both feet on directional trades. Gains have to be taken quick. none

[madtrader]
Mon Apr 8, 2:11pm PDT Money flow
A reader asked me what kind of stocks would I consider leadership types. Well, if you are technical oriented trader, the single most important driver of stock prices is money flow. When money flows in, stocks tend to go up. Which is why I perform a daily scan of all stocks above $5 and has a daily average volume of at least 50,000 to find potential winners. And I am not at all surprised to find many of the names are also the current winners. I scan stock datas that goes back more than 1,000 trading days, then filter them again with the data from the last 75 days. The logic is that I want stocks that shows long term money in-flow as well as short term surge. The following is a list of names that came out of that scan. Since my long term scan came back with close to 300 matchs, I filter them down to names that trades more than 500,000 shares a day. And this narrows down to less than 30 names. You shouldn't base this alone as names to buy. It is a good starting point though. Here goes: KO, HLYW, HI, PG MMM, CBRL, TOL, ELON, LTR, HCR, RETK, CEFT, HC, KSS, THQI, JNY, MDY, ADVS, BLL, FDC, LMT, FRE, FNM, CTAS, KBH, K, THOR, THC, TRB, WEBM, INTU, WAG, RYL, CLX, APOL, DUK, HET, ETR, WFC, MYG, OI, GPT, GDW, ACDO, RDN, DGX. I am already long TOL, MMM, MDY, FDC, LMT, WEBM, APOL, GPT, ACDO, DGX.
[madtrader]
Mon Apr 8, 1:23pm PDT INTC
Smith Barney's technical analyst downgraded INTC today based on technicals. Huh?!! Which chart is he looking at? One of the key points he made was the fact INTC traded below 200 DMA. I am afraid that I am embarrassed for my old firm. A firm that had a rich history in technical research by people like Alan Shaw, Louise Yamada. I don't know where this fellow got his training. The call, in my opinion is just amateurish. It doesn't take a seasoned technician to see that INTC is in the process of forming a bullish divergence. On top of that, when compared to other large cap tech generals, it has held up well. Granted it has under-performed the SOX index. But can anyone imagine a substantial rally in SOX without the participation of INTC? I don't see any problems with the SOX at all, and INTC should participate in the rebound of the group. I believe he just got rattled by IBM this morning. But that's not why people pay him the big bucks! Selling after the fact! none.
[RumorDude]
Mon Apr 8, 1:10pm PDT Market
While I agree that todays move was pretty compelling for a reversal call, I am very concerned about the lack of volume. I'll expect jitters to continue with the middle east uncertainty and warnings. none
[madtrader]
Mon Apr 8, 1:03pm PDT Market
All major indices closed at their highs. A very impressive key reversal day. I am particularly encouraged by how the big "generals" have performed. But let's not forget, during this correction, techs aren't the ones that held up. It's housing, financials (regional banks mostly), HMOs, leisure and business services type names that lead the way. I would continue looking for leaderships names out of these sectors. If you insists on tech, then look no further than semiconductors. none.
[madtrader]

Mon Apr 8, 12:21pm PDT MSFT
Monster bullish engulfing day here. If this isn't the bottom for this stock, I don't know what is.

madtrader]
Mon Apr 8, 11:07am PDT CYMI
AMAT
VSEA
SLAB
Someone emailed me and asked what are the best semiconductor plays. Well, based on my own scans on money flow, these 4 names are getting the biggest in-flow. Needless to say some of the better charts too. long CYMI.
[madtrader]
Mon Apr 8, 11:05am PDT $OEX.X
Punched through the 62% retracement level, less consolidation than I expected. Watch the fireworks fly. We are having a big short squeeze here. none.
[madtrader]
Mon Apr 8, 10:49am PDT $OEX.X
OEX has ticked up to today's 62% retracement level and stopped. Fairly logical, as it should consolidate around here. Will probably drag QQQ back to 34 as well. I am going to use this chance to add to my longs. none.
[madtrader]
Mon Apr 8, 10:45am PDT QQQ
Normally I would have taken my gains here. Since QQQ has indeed filled the gap. I had no idea what triggered this rally today. After checking some news items, I suppose the rally has merits. Bush's warning to Sharon, PLMD's investigation by the SEC over (I have my doubtbs over PLMD's innocense, but's that's irrelevant here), AMTD's merger with Datek (a very bullish indication), etc. On top of that, I am not convinced this "oil crisis" is really long lasting anyhow. And the MMM guide up last week confirms my blief that the economy is indeed much healthier than the Street wants to believe. Anyhow, the midway point for QQQ's Friday range is 34.70. If you use the gap as reference, that's also the 138% Fibonacci level. long QQQ.
[madtrader]
Mon Apr 8, 10:27am PDT $SOX.X
SMH
I am more than convinced now that we have indeed seen the low of this correction. SOX is showing a "loud" and clear bullish hammer on daily chart. On top of that, it's intraday low touched the 62% Fibonacci retracement level and rallied sharply off it. You can ask for a more logical setup here. You can go long SMH here. none.
[madtrader]
Mon Apr 8, 10:23am PDT $VIX.X
$VXN.X
BTW, I believe VIX has reach the peak of this cycle here. And both the VIX and VXN will show a clear bearish reverse divergence when compared to their Feb peaks. We should see VIX fall back below 20 coupled with a rally in the market. none



To: Johnny Canuck who wrote (36702)4/9/2002 8:07:49 PM
From: Johnny Canuck  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 67943
 
Buying binge could cost Corporate America $1Trillion
04/04/2002 - Updated 09:44 PM ET
By Thor Valdmanis, USA TODAY

NEW YORK - As if investors needed more bad news, the greatest corporate confession of all time is about to begin.

Dozens of once-hyper-acquisitive companies are expected to admit publicly in coming days that they gambled and lost billions on big deals executed at the height of the bull market.

The final price tag could exceed $1 trillion.

"We are going to get confirmation that hundreds of billions of dollars in shareholder capital has been wasted or destroyed," says David Tice, manager of the Prudent Bear fund, which makes bets that certain stocks will fall.

"Wall Street will say don't worry about it, but shareholders should think again."

Most of the pain is expected to be unveiled with first-quarter earnings as companies are forced to take massive charges under new accounting for goodwill, the premium a buyer pays to acquire a target's assets.

Under the rules, companies are required to write down their goodwill immediately to reflect any permanent declines in value.

Under the old rules, they could write down goodwill gradually, over as many as 40 years.

Already, entertainment titan AOL Time Warner has said it would take a record $54 billion goodwill write-down as a reflection of "overall market declines" since its merger was announced two years ago.

Other major media companies have announced they will follow suit, including Clear Channel, with a $15 billion to $25 billion write-down, and Vivendi Universal, with a $12.3 billion to $13.2 billion write-down.

Struggling telecommunications companies have also warned shareholders about coming massive goodwill write-downs, including Qwest, with $20 billion to $30 billion, and WorldCom, $15 billion to $20 billion.

Some analysts estimate that before it's over, Corporate America could see more than $1 trillion in net worth evaporate. That could have a further chilling effect on a stock market and investors that badly need cheering up.

While companies and Wall Street analysts generally stress that goodwill write-downs are one-time, non-cash charges that have no impact on underlying operations or cash flow, many accounting experts argue they are significant - an admission that the investments companies once made are no longer worth as much. Moreover, a company with atrophied assets and a ballooning debt-to-asset ratio may find it harder to borrow.

Believing their own growth stories and enjoying high stock valuations that gave them pricey stock to swap for acquisitions, many companies engaged in an orgy of dealmaking.

Many of the prices paid now look excessive.

"The serial acquisitions many companies made are not going to generate the revenues they anticipated. That suggests management made some bad deals," says Lehman Bros. accounting expert Robert Willens.