Silicon Investor (SI) -- The First Internet Community

STOCKTALK

We've detected that you're using an ad content blocking browser plug-in or feature. Ads provide a critical source of revenue to the continued operation of Silicon Investor. We ask that you disable ad blocking while on Silicon Investor in the best interests of our community. If you are not using an ad blocker but are still receiving this message, make sure your browser's tracking protection is set to the 'standard' level.

Strategies & Market Trends : Technology Stocks & Market Talk With Don Wolanchuk -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: robert b furman who wrote (2190)	4/9/2002 11:51:27 PM
From: Chip McVickar	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 208178

The CRB index is falling, the oil situation is easing, dollar has flattened and gold has started down. The bears see this as a big red flagg for a deflationary event just around the corner. Markets have held up very well under the world wide slow down and international pressures.... won't take much good news to set them going higher. With Enron backing out the door, Japan fading, Bush snapping his fingers at Israel and thin summer trading coming in these markets should turn higher in this month of April. Short of an all out Holy War developing or another Enron falling from heaven's gate... I'm looking a move higher.

To: robert b furman who wrote (2190)	4/10/2002 12:41:13 AM
From: Runomo™	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 208178

Hi Bob... Good post...I was kinda thinking along the same line...I just hope our wondering is not just building castles on thin air :) INTC reports on the 16th next week...50% retrace from it's September lows is around 27.8. My sector candidate for the next wave of recognition of this emerging baby bull market is the wireless and chip equipment stocks...not only because of well known "inventory replenishment" demand, but of recent news from Korea with CDMA handset ramp..and strong demand particularly in March as well (ANAD, RFMD).. though China is said to be a tad weaker than expected...I look for TXN to lead the charge on Monday the 15th...NVLS also reports on Monday, I also expect them to talk about strong demand in the 300mm and copper. Even some of the communication chips that mainly rely on enterprise and networking will begin to show sequential revenue growth this quarter(VTSS, PMCS, CNXT). Others will at last guide for sequential revenue growth commencing June quarter (AMCC..maybe JDSU??)... One final and simple observation about the Naz 200 day moving average that may have relevance to where we find ourselves today. If you look at the last great Naz bull run from 10/98 to 3/00....the Naz broke out free from the confines of it's 200 dma late October 98 and remained above it for about 17 1/2 months.... when the Naz finally fell from grace to test it's 200 dma it traded for about 100 days, from first contact to last contact, in a zone around that average and then on the 101th trading day it finally broke down. We were just at the beginning trek of the larger C wave of DA ZIG ZAG.....14 months later, on 12/14/01 the Naz made it's first contact from below with it's 200 dma and promptly fell back. It has since been flirting with it for exactly 90 days. Let's see if there is beauty in symmetry as we await day 101 :) Mo