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Strategies & Market Trends : Coming Financial Collapse Moderated -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: TobagoJack who wrote (652)	4/10/2002 5:16:18 AM
From: EL KABONG!!!	Respond to of 974

Jay, I read a news story (yesterday, I think) about shifting demographics and aging. The article said that by 2010 (I probably guessed the wrong year) or something like that, the global population will add 1,000,000 new people to the over 60 age group every single day, with the increased aging effect lasting until well after 2040, at which time the elderly will far outnumber their youthful brethren, by something near a 3 to 1 margin. The implication of the article was that younger people would be financially unable to support the elderly either through direct taxation, charitable assistance or in-home support of aging friends and relatives. The problem is not just Japanese or American. It is global in scope, and will hit the so called third world nations much more severely than first world countries. Among the solutions offered in the article was increasing normal retirement ages, with the elderly performing work that would take into account the decreasing physical and mental capabilities brought on by advancing longevity. The article pointed out that many of the diseases/conditions that terminate life now will be treatable and curable well within the next 30 to 50 years, adding years to expected lifespans. Retirement at 65 wouldn't be an option if life expectancy was say 100. The reporter/author also pointed out (correctly from my point of view) that the biggest problems facing future world leaders will be economic in nature, rather than wars or diseases or lack of available food/water/shelter. The gap between the third world countries and the first world countries will continue to widen, but third world nations will make progress towards infrastructure improvements and health care, while first world nations struggle to cope with an inverted pyramid of consumers, where the elderly have fewer buyers for savings vehicles that they might be selling, such as cashing in the equity in a home, or even selling stocks and bonds. Too many people cashing in, and too few people to buy. China was mentioned as one country (along with India and Indonesia and others) where problems will be particularly acute because of the overwhelming numbers of elderly people that can reasonably be expected within their populations over the next 40 or so years, and a near total lack of funding for social programs for the elderly within the same time frames. In other words, they can't build infrastructure and care for the elderly at the same time on the same coins. Something's gotta give... So, I guess the author of that article sort of agrees with you (as do I)... Economic troubles dead ahead... KJC