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To: RR who wrote (49857)	4/10/2002 1:23:29 PM
From: Cactus Jack	Respond to of 65232

RR, Sounds like the birth of our last child. I hope that papa is as elated as I was. jpgill

To: RR who wrote (49857)	4/11/2002 8:20:47 AM
From: stockman_scott	Respond to of 65232

UBS Warburg says U.S. recovery may fade HONG KONG, April 11 (Reuters) - The current economic recovery in the United States, spurred by a rapid build up of inventories, may not be sustainable for the rest of the year if capital investment in technology fails to revive, UBS Warburg said. ``The first half of 2002 has been marked by a robust pick-up in output and production, largely due to a turnaround in the inventory cycle,'' George Magnus, UBS Warburg's chief economist, told a news conference. ``The probability of sustaining that follow through is somewhat questionable. The risk of disappointment is quite big.'' Swift reconstitution of inventories, massive government spending -- mainly after the September 11 attacks on the United States -- and modest gains in corporate profits have boosted growth in the last two quarters. ``But these are largely one-off. Their impact is likely to fade during the year,'' Magnus said. A rise in global crude oil prices to over US$27 per barrel could also emerge as a roadblock on the path to recovery and clip 0.5 percent off the growth rate in 2002, he added. UBS Warburg expects the U.S. to grow at an annualised rate of 2.4 percent in 2002 and 3.5 percent in 2003. U.S. Treasury Secretary Paul O'Neill on Wednesday said that the U.S. economy was moving along ``at a good pace'' and average growth should be near 3.5 percent by the year's end. CAPITAL EXPENDITURE Magnus said consumer spending in the OECD economies is already running at record high levels and is unlikely to provide any additional stimulus for growth. ``Capital expenditure remains the key to whether we get an accelerated economic recovery,'' Magnus said. The Swiss investment bank said revival of capital expenditure hinges on the performance of the information and communications technology (ICT) sector as the ``old economy'' segments like transport and housing lack the power to generate higher returns. ``So, basically it depends on the outlook for technology. It's a bit like a curate's egg, good in parts only,'' Magnus said. Growth within the technology industry will be driven mainly by semiconductors, software and consumer electronics as the communication equipment, mobile phone and wireless infrastructure sectors continue to be mired in financial problems. ``So, we are not that optimistic that we are going to see much more than a modest revival in technology,'' Magnus said. While Asia has benefitted from an upturn in the U.S., the pace of recovery will depend on the increase in investment spending in the U.S. and to a lesser extent Europe and Japan. Magnus expected the U.S. Federal Reserve to hike interest rates by between 25 and 75 basis points, but not until the last quarter of the year. ``The interest rate outlook cannot be as negative as the futures market in interest rate contracts is discounting,'' he said. September Eurodollar futures are already pricing in U.S. interest rate hikes of 116.5 bps this year, taking the key Fed Funds rate to about 2.9 percent from 1.75 percent now.

To: RR who wrote (49857)	4/14/2002 5:56:36 PM
From: RR	Read Replies (5) \| Respond to of 65232

Hello Troops! Hope everyone is having a super weekend! Not posted for a few days. Had an unexpected ill Mother that Mrs. RR and I are taking care of for awhile. Still read the posts every day but the time is sort of limited right now, plus I have to be in Wash D.C. for a big case this week. When it rains it pours, as the ole saying goes. Ah, but we all get tested in life at times. The key is how you handle it. Oh yeah, Momma blue bird got that 5th egg to hatch. So for those of you who sent those positive vibs her way several days ago, well, it paid off! Make an impact this week, Folks. It'll cost you a week of your life so make it count. RR