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Strategies & Market Trends : Technical analysis for shorts & longs -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?


To: Johnny Canuck who wrote (36718)4/11/2002 3:14:14 AM
From: Johnny Canuck  Respond to of 67946
 
19:40 ET EMKR EMCORE ups Q2 revenue guidance, announces restructuring (9.19 -0.48)
Company issues upside preannouncement for Q2 (Mar), expecting revenues to exceed the 15%-20% sequential quarterly growth previously projected, which translates to exceeding $22-23 mln (consensus $21.2 mln); also announced restructuring of its operations and further implementation of on-going cost reduction initiatives; expects to record restructuring charge of $33-38 mln in Q2 associated with workforce reductions and other write-downs; will also take $12-15 mln charge to write off excess and obsolete inventory and doubtful accounts.

[Harry: ANAD and EMKR have both announced upside announcements. Given that opticals has not recoverd it means that wireless communications components are tracking ahead of schedule. This bodes well for KOPN provided they have been able to maintain traction in camcorder monitors either through new desgin wins or good demand. RFMD is probably alright also given what is being suggested by ANAD and EMKR. Note that TQNT pre-warned though so not everyone in the sector is benefitting. As long as CNXT does well KOPN should be alright. KOPN is about to bottom at the Feb low and the Sept low. I would expect a bounce given the improved fundamentals.]



To: Johnny Canuck who wrote (36718)4/11/2002 4:37:25 AM
From: Johnny Canuck  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 67946
 
RMBS CC highlights

15 per increase in profitability q-q

increase of net income 9 per q-q

expenses lowest in 6 q's

rev 23.4 mil down 5 per q-q, 25 per y-y

royalties 21.8 mil flat q-q, down 8 per y-y

seeing good royalty stream from memory and controllers

memory - rev growth 23 per q-q, unit growth 27 per q-q

controllers - rev growth 3 per q-q, unit growth 7 per q-q

contract rev down 1.3 mil, flat next q, don't expect much change till we get Yellowstone clients signed

SDRAM+DDR royalties down 9 per q-q on memory + controllers

1.6 mil in legal expenses in q, down 2.4 mil

$5 mil in shares re-purchaed during q

cash up to 162 mil from 159 mil q-q

no inventory risks

not offseting vechiles

conservative accounting for royalty rev

bought back 635,000 shares at average $7.35, not 100 mil outstanding, 103 fully diluted

Guidance:

Rev flat q-q
Op Ex up 1 mil due to investment in development of RSAS serial technolgy and Yellowstone.

Legal cost below 2 mil next q

other income will be down due to sub-lease on old facilty, should be $200,000

tax rate 35 percent

EPS 6 cents

RSAS business:
Apps in WAN backplanes, Fiber channel infibandd apps, 10 gigE
saves resources + power
5 to 10 lincesees so far
INTC, Banderacom (sp?) and TXCC are licensees
hope to see first rev in summer
Banderacom demonstrated recently at INTC developers conf.
RSAS recently passed technical testing at another OEM
4 working chipset to date

expect 10 gigE to be small but fast growing segment, expect good operating margins

Yellowstone:
Have made 3 passes at silicon, seeing good progress, current system support 3.2 gig, next step 6 gig,expect first licensee in summer

RDRAM:
14 percent of all DRAM is RDRAM
unit vol up 27 per q-q
RDRAM still making design wins
seeing good PS/2 sales
INTC selected RDRAM for network controller, VTSS select RDRAM memory,
New INTC 850E chipset will build on RDRAM, extension of 850.
Silicon Systems expand RDRAM license to include 850
CPQ alpha that will ship later this year will contain RDRAM

Legal Stuff:

In US: briefing of appeal heard. June for arguments, ruling 2003.
Suits on MU and Hynix put off till appeal heard
US trade commission still looking at JDEC standards participation in 1991-1195
Shareholders lawsuits now all combined in California, except one in Delware hope to dismiss
New lawsuite from Holiday Matinee claiming they overpaid for RAM due to RMBS royalty, has no merit due to declining RAM prices, not all manufactures paying royalty
3 suites in Germany - iNFY, Hynix, MU. Patent validity + Infringement determination in Sept, expect an injunction in Q3/Q4 if successful, will have to post a bond if they appeal



To: Johnny Canuck who wrote (36718)4/12/2002 4:28:11 AM
From: Johnny Canuck  Read Replies (3) | Respond to of 67946
 
Running list stocks confirming/upping guidance April 11,2002

MCHP *****
NXTL
ANAD
ANEN
RMTR
TTWO
RCL
UCL
ELBO *
TREE
EK
ITRI
SMRT
TSA
CYMI
PNR
GM
GE
INSP
CD
ESST
UAG
EMN
ROH
TSG
KEM
PG
CKFR
CLX
TKR
DL
TRB
JILL
FO
TIBX
EXEL
ALLY
STN
UAG
EMN
JBL**
IDTI
SHW
MVIS
BYD
GE
FINL
PFE
GGC
CBRL
WTSLA
BOL
YELL
TWR
LBRT
MANU
DCN
EMMS
DCTM
BOL
WDC
HRV
BHE
MONE
WDC
DELL
RTN***
DD
JNY
SKX
PFCB
WEBM
HLYW
DHI
SWK
SY
BBBY
STR
WBSN
MMM
CHPC
FTS
DELL
MWRK
CPKI
CRUS
BRCD
INRG
SBAC
GNSS
PEET
UNTD
RL****
JDAS
CPQ
WEN
ARRS
NWRE
INTU
TSA
BLI
SPAR
KCP
OSIS
SHRP
DL
IDPH
LE
FWHT
MNRO
EMKR
NMTC
MCAF
NSM
SHW
CTB
S
GYMB
ANN
PIR
NET
MERQ - R
PWAV - R
ELNT - R
TGT
ROST
JAS.A
JCP

* ELBO sold off despite beating numbers for earnings
** JBL reducing rev for next 2 Q's, ups EPS due to better tax rate, ups rev and EPS for year, large new contracts 2H
*** Appears to raise 2003 rev guidance, miss of 2004 though
**** re-affirms for the Q, down slightly for the year
***** MCHP raised guidance again for the Q

- R : REPORTED ALREADY