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Politics : High Tolerance Plasticity -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: kodiak_bull who wrote (13214)	4/11/2002 10:42:26 AM
From: Sweet Ol	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 23153

I think we need to examine what made tech such great investments in the past. It was primarily the growth of computers and allied products (software, networks, etc.). It was a brand new market that was growing at hugh percentages. But today the market is pretty well saturated in all areas. It is pretty much a replacement market with new growth that is proportional to the growth of the economy. That tells me that even when things pick up again that most tech stocks will not perform any better than any other market. Some companies will do better than others (just like in any other industry) and there will always be sector rotation and cycles. But, IMHO, the days of monstrous growth have passed. I also think many of the tech stock prices are still wildly inflated based on this scenario. It will be tough to pick winners, just like in the rest of the market. Best to all, JRH

To: kodiak_bull who wrote (13214)	4/11/2002 10:43:06 AM
From: Sweet Ol	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 23153

No one asked me for my opinion on the tech market, but that has never stopped me in the past! It is time for another of my Naz rants. Look at the chart of the Naz. It is strongly in the grip of the purple pitchfork that is pointed down at about a 30 degree angle. I don't see serious support till the Sept lows. stockcharts.com The monthly still has not broken out of its Falling Trading Channel. The primary direction is sideways, which doesn't bode well for a breakout up. stockcharts.com The weekly doesn't look good either. Pardon all the messy lines, it makes it a bit hard to fathom. It has broken down out of the red triangle and also down out of the yellow up-trend pitchfork and it seems the green fork is still in control. Notice that the green fork parallels the blue FTC. It is hard to see anything in the pattern that makes me very optimistic. stockcharts.com As a result of my analysis I am heavily short the QQQ and also have shorts on CIEN, CIMA, EMLX, NVDA, SEBL, TER and TYC. I am happy with all of them. Best to all, JRH