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Politics : High Tolerance Plasticity -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Sweet Ol who wrote (13231)	4/11/2002 3:50:51 PM
From: The Ox	Respond to of 23153

JRH, Thanks for the charts in one of your previous posts. I think it should be noted that while the NASDAQ down trends are still the dominant features, the actual severity of the down trends is changing. The first washout was almost straight down, after the rebound the next trend was sharply down, but not quite as acute as the original angle of descent. If we look at the latest down trend, the angle is less acute than the previous. So, each subsequent down trend has been less severe, not in point values but in the nature of the slope. I think this an important factor in helping us determine when the market will turn. If the next rebound is met with a less acute downtrend, then one can start becoming more "long-term" bullish. If the the trend stays similar to the current down trend, or becomes more severe...this should help one stay in "bear mode". I still think we are near a short term low/bottom on the NASDAQ but the doom and gloom seems to be reaching a fevered pitch lately. Coincidence? The bears would say no!

To: Sweet Ol who wrote (13231)	4/11/2002 8:09:00 PM
From: Warpfactor	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 23153

Hi JRH, <<Warp, how do you interpret this high TRIN? What is it telling you?>> TRIN finished the day at 3.01. This is really, really high. A massive amount of panic dumping today. But I guess we already know that. This dumping appears largely confined to the NYSE, since the NASDAQ TRIN checked in at a relatively sedate 1.45. The NASDAQ equities are typically much more volatile, and the NAZ TRIN typically runs to the extreme of the NYSE. TRIN is the ratio of ((Up Equities)/(Down equities)) / ((Up shares traded)/(Down shares traded)) in the NYSE. If on a given day, 50% of NYSE stocks are up and 50% are down, and 50% of the traded volume is up, and 50% is down, then the TRIN is 1.0. If on another day, 50% of stocks are up and 50% down, but the volume ratio is 33% up vs. 66% down, then the TRIN is 2.0, considered to be a very high number. Half of the stocks account for 2/3 of the down volume. This is indicative that many stocks are being dumped indiscriminately. Of course today we hit a 3.0. The other thing to mention, the 10DMA of this TRIN is called the ARMS Index. Currently it is registering a 1.56. Historically, anytime the ARMS Index breached 1.50, a bull market commenced within the next 4 weeks. The dumping/oversold state persisted for such a long period that all of the sellers were cleaned out, setting the stage for a bull run. This indicator was considered "perfect" for 40 years - since it always worked. I personally profited by positioning for the bull market upon getting this signal. However, we got such a signal in late January, and it failed to produce anything that could be called a bull rally. At that time, the dumping was directly attributable to ENE and other "accounting irregularities" issues such as HC, ELN, TYC and a handful of others. The 1.50 on the ARMS Index was an anomoly, its existence was not confirmed in other key market oversold indicators. Warp