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Technology Stocks : Full Disclosure Trading -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: kdavy who wrote (147)	4/12/2002 12:34:40 PM
From: Jacob Snyder	Read Replies (4) \| Respond to of 13403

JDSU buy/sell plan: Buy at 5 and every 0.25 on down, each purchase 2% of portfolio. Sell, entire holding in 6-7 area. Basically, I think this is a good trading stock now, but not yet an investment. The last 2 intermediate-term bottoms were close to each other, at around 5 (although we did set a new low). The stock has been going down for 2 years. I think the bad news is out, the momentum traders are out, and the stock has little ST/MT downside. It will remain a highly volatile stock, which will attract money on any whiff of good news, and has repeatedly doubled off MT lows, over the last 2 years. Sometime, the sector will come back. When it does, JDSU will be a survivor, and will dominate that sector. Their products will never be commodities. No LT debt, $1.20/sh. cash. High barriers to entry. Let's say they make $0.20 in calendar year 2003. Let's give them a PE of 30. That's a stock price of 6. Maybe they don't make 0.20 till 2004. That's OK. My point is, they are reasonably valued, for their profitability once demand for their products comes back. And they are not a LU, (=a former must-own tech darling that may not survive till demand comes back). But that sector rebound, which is needed for any sustainable upmove in JDSU, won't happen this year, and possibly not next year either. So I will still be selling the rallies till I'm out completely, with this one, for now. I'll post, when I think JDSU becomes "investment-grade" (= when I stop selling the rallies). It may be a long wait. Today was my first purchase of JDSU, at 5. Sitting on 27% cash, starting to aggressively buy this dip, as the Nas is on the brink of sinking into the 1600s.