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Strategies & Market Trends : MARKET INDEX TECHNICAL ANALYSIS - MITA -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: J.T. who wrote (11579)	4/12/2002 12:53:39 AM
From: bobby beara	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 19219

one reason the ndx leveraged funds are not upside down like they were in february, at a slightly lower ndx price than february, is because the dow is much higher, don't know what to make than that, but the bears have taken back control of the market since 3/11, i was in the pullback camp up until a week or two ago, after today, i think we could see the ndx leveraged ratios get back to the feb lows before we bottom.

To: J.T. who wrote (11579)	4/12/2002 12:54:01 AM
From: Killswitch	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 19219

The divergence between the dynamic series and regular series rydex ratios is odd indeed. No clue why it is doing that. However, if we just split the difference and add up the total short and long NDX assets we get a ratio of around 35 right now. It peaked at around 48 at the end of Feb and around 28 after 9/11 and around 17 in April 2001. What does it all mean? We are high enough to rally any time now, yet on the other hand it could get a lot worse first. Remember during Feb we hung around at high ratios for around 3 weeks I think, so we don't have to immediately begin an extended rally here. Also of note that the combined SPX asset ratio is FAR below what we peaked at in Feb and after 9/11. In those cases it hit over 200, and right now we are at 112. So I'd say not only does it look a lot less bullish than NDX, but it is also strangely divergent. I guess this has occurred because the DJIA/SPX have been outperforming the NDX. I suppose either the NDX will eventually outperform them for a while, or everything will rally together and the SPX ratios/asset levels will start to revert back to lower levels more associated with a bull market.