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Strategies & Market Trends : The Covered Calls for Dummies Thread -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?


To: BDR who wrote (3647)4/12/2002 11:05:39 AM
From: DiB  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 5205
 
>If called out in 217 days, return is 25%
Why settle on just 25% in 7 months? <ggg>



To: BDR who wrote (3647)4/12/2002 4:11:43 PM
From: Allen Furlan  Read Replies (2) | Respond to of 5205
 
Dale, I am partial to the strategy of selling far out in the money calls, especially in an IRA. I just hate to lose money in the tax deferred account. I considered gmst as a covered call position last week but felt that stock may see lower prices in the next month(no good basis for this, just observing the punishment suffered by many mispriced broken darlings.) Speaking of mispricing I am surprised at the strong support on this thread for qcom. Barrons had qcom on pricey stocks list last weeks issue at p/s of 11. I know that it is a great company with fantastic intellectual property but how long can it defy the gravitational forces of its financial metrics?



To: BDR who wrote (3647)4/12/2002 10:22:54 PM
From: Dan Duchardt  Respond to of 5205
 
Dale,

Could someone with access to a probability calculator run the numbers on that for me?

Can you use this?

hoadley.net

It is web based and free. It requires an estimate of the return on the stock per year, time to end of period, and volatility. I just threw in a couple of wild guesses of 10% return and 70% volatility along with your numbers, and it says about 65% chance of being called out and 21% of losing on the trade.

Dan