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Politics : Foreign Affairs Discussion Group -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Ilaine who wrote (24777)	4/12/2002 1:15:41 PM
From: Nadine Carroll	Respond to of 281500

The IDF's assessement: Wave of attacks expected after pullout - senior officer By Arieh O'Sullivan TEL AVIV (April 12) - Israel should expect an attempted wave of terrorist attacks after the IDF withdraws from West Bank cities as the Palestinians try to prove that Operation Defensive Shield failed, a senior military officer said yesterday. "They want to prove that we didn't annihilate them," the officer said. But it will likely be a brief wave, because the IDF and security services have dealt a massive blow to the Palestinian terrorist infrastructure, he said, adding, it will peak again if efforts are not made to ensure the terrorist infrastructure is not rebuilt. The army is already seeing signs of this in the cities it has vacated, like Tulkarm. It is believed that the suicide bomber who blew himself up on the bus near Yagur yesterday came from Tulkarm. "Immediately after we pulled out, we saw the terror leaders returning and starting to work," the senior officer said in a briefing with military reporters in Tel Aviv. The assessment in the IDF is that the damage to civilian property and the Palestinian Authority's infrastructure is so vast they will need to have a sort of "Marshall Plan" to help finance the rehabilitation rebuild it. "The PA can't do it by itself," he said. "And I hope we won't have to return there after they rehabilitate themselves." The senior officer said that the Palestinian security forces have greatly suffered from the invasion. But he said they could be rehabilitated if Palestinian Authority Chairman Yasser Arafat so desired. However, the assessment is that Arafat is not interested in giving these orders so that he has an excuse to justify his refraining from taking steps against terror. "Arafat can operate in Gaza and can dry up terror and return the security forces to power. Till then there is a vacuum. And if he doesn't [return the security forces to power] then the Tanzim will take their place," the senior officer said. "Arafat didn't enter the refugee camps now just as he didn't in '98 or '99. He didn't, because it served him." In the meantime, the big beneficiaries of the assault are the local, grass-roots level Tanzim activists. The Tanzim have filled the vacuum left by the collapse of the Palestinian security forces. He said the street was staunchly backing the local fighters. Hamas did not play a significant role in the battles against the IDF, and the so-called Palestinian street was critical of the Palestinian security forces who mostly did nothing to confront the IDF. "The security apparatuses are paralyzed. The Tanzim is the most significant player today," said the senior officer. Another assessment by the military is that Arafat will never abandon the strategy of terror. "He has passed the point of no return and won't cease using terror against us," the senior officer said. Still, he added that the army has no proof that Arafat had coordinated attacks personally. "[Arafat] gave the directions, the funding, and set the level of the flames," he said. "Right now, Arafat doesn't feel weak. He feels his achievements are good." Arafat's stature as a symbol has skyrocketed, but his respect as a leader is plummeting. This has sparked a new stage in the quiet battle for his succession, marked mainly by coalition building. Since the speech by US President George W. Bush, who personally delegitimized Arafat, it is possible to hear other voices in the PA. The senior officer sees four groups of "leaders" in the present Palestinian society. These include those who are with him now in the Ramallah Mukata "suffering the stench." They are identified as West Bank Palestinian police commander Ibrahim Haj Ismail, and Tawfik Tirawi, the head of General Intelligence. Their status has been boosted. Muhammad Dahlan, head of the Preventative Security Service in the Gaza Strip, and negotiator Saeb Erekat have also benefited by serving as mouthpieces for Arafat. Old time leaders like Mahmoud Abbas and Ahmed Qurei have become weakened, and did not take advantage of Arafat's isolation to exert leadership. An enigma is Jabril Rajoub, head of the once powerful West Bank Preventative Security Service. His reputation has been severely damaged due to the failed standoff with the IDF at his headquarters. He was seen as surrendering and many people want to "settle accounts with him." "But don't eulogize him so quickly. He has very strong links with his people and a lot of charisma. He is trying to forge an axis with West Bank leaders to offset the Gaza axis," said the senior officer. Tanzim leader Marwan Barghouti has disappeared, but IDF commanders believe that he will be able to resume his leadership role "if he has survived." Regarding the arrests, 10 of the 1,000 arrested are top fugitives who are experts in bomb-making and rocket production. Another 60 are mid-level operatives and about half of them "have blood on their hands," a euphemism used by the IDF for those involved in the killing of Israelis. At least 15 of the Palestinians killed were said to be senior terrorists. jpost.com