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To: Jacob Snyder who wrote (173)	4/12/2002 2:19:23 PM
From: Cary Salsberg	Respond to of 13403

You should use FA to decide if this company will be in business 5 years from now! If you think you can compare JDSU to AMAT, you need some more work in FA. I think the term Gorilla and the analysis it represents was just pseudo-economic bullshit. Yes, JDSU cobbled together a company during a bubble and there are no obvious barriers to entry. The longer the down period lasts, the greater chance for them to be replaced in the markets they dominated. I have no clue about their future revenues, sales, PE, etc. I am pretty certain you don't either and I am becoming more convinced that JDSU management doesn't. I agree that with "proper study, discipline, and investing/trading/gambling principles" you "can play the game with the odds in your favor". I am just continuing to harp on what I think is your Achilles heel. You don't appreciate the fragility of technology companies. I am NOT unreasonably pessimistic. I am merely raising a scenario that has reasonable probability which you seem to ignore. I would support your plan if you limited JDSU to 5% of your portfolio and you started to invest when there were reasonable signs that their revenues have stopped falling and are likely to begin at least a moderate rise.

To: Jacob Snyder who wrote (173)	4/12/2002 2:25:54 PM
From: Sam Citron	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 13403

maybe the air is, finally, out of it Springtime is more commonly associated with tech stock tops than with bottoms (probably conference season related). The momentum crowd departed JDSU long ago. The value crowd may be mulling it over, but no solid evidence of accumulation there yet and institutions have to consider junk perception when they buy <$5 stocks. And the weak hands will get out when their accountants direct them to do so in the fall. I notice that the biggest institution is Barclays (huge indexer and creator of derivative ETFs) which owns 46 million shares. lionshares.com Vanguard is #5, another big indexer. You gotta worry about the selling pressure if/when they take JDSU out of the S&P 500 and NAZ 100. Even if they keep it in, the rebalancing will reinforce negative momentum. In short, I think you are early, Jacob. Current owners are close to puking. Just be patient. It is unseemly for the physician to arrive too early. <g> Sam