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Strategies & Market Trends : VOLTAIRE'S PORCH-MODERATED -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Jim Willie CB who wrote (49970)	4/12/2002 3:29:40 PM
From: Jim Willie CB	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 65232

AMAZED AT NONEXISTENT STUDENTS OF FINANCIAL HISTORY around 1970, a London Group attempted with FedReserve help to cap the price of gold at $32/oz they maintained their line in the sand artificially they used illegal anti-trust tactics pressure was building with Arab oil supply uncertainty our imported oil was vast in quantity, low in price we had just finished a tremendous boom decade with stocks DOES ANYTHING SOUND FAMILIAR ??? fast forward 8-10 years GOLD ROSE ALMOST 30X SILVER ROSE 25X after the paper mache volcano blew up and for over a decade the stock market fell asleep while the decade turned out to see most commodities thrive this time much bigger, much much bigger the game has been manipulated much longer by more players large derivative short position has held the fort (almost no derivatives participated in 1970) silver demand is much greater silver supply is much lower far more money sloshing around the world more continents are under huge financial distress far far far more currency has been printed US federal debts (total USTBonds) are 5x larger US trade deficit is 10x larger 40% of USTBonds are held by foreigners 5% of US GDP is equal to trade deficit Japan is dying a financial death numerous countries are on the brink of financial chaos it is NOT that "things" have gotten more expensive over years IT IS MORE LIKE THE DOLLAR HAS GOTTEN MORE WORTHLESS this silver/gold volcano will make headlines for months does anyone see it coming? a full circle is happening, returning back to gold roots prediction: gold at $2000 by 2008, silver at $150 / JW SBG

To: Jim Willie CB who wrote (49970)	4/12/2002 3:48:30 PM
From: stockman_scott	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 65232

Sales and Tame Prices Keep Recovery on Course By Jonathan Nicholson Friday April 12, 1:26 pm Eastern Time WASHINGTON (Reuters) - A modest gain in March retail sales, along with a relatively tame report on wholesale prices, show the U.S. economy expanding slowly but steadily, a pace that should keep the pressure off the Federal Reserve to raise interest rates soon. The Commerce Department said on Friday retail sales in March rose 0.2 percent overall -- less than Wall Street analysts had expected -- with help from an increase in gasoline prices. Consumers' views on the economy edged slightly lower, though, according to the University of Michigan's preliminary monthly survey of consumer sentiment, which fell to 94.4 in April from 95.7 in March. In another report, the Labor Department said prices at the wholesale level, before goods reach store shelves, were up 1.0 percent. But once volatile food and energy prices were excluded, the rise was more modest 0.1 percent gain. Analysts said the numbers overall bode well for the economy as it rebounds from a shallow recession that began in March 2001. The economy grew at an annual rate of 1.7 percent in the final three quarters of 2001, but is expected to have accelerated in the first three months of this year to an unsustainable pace near 5 percent. Friday's numbers hinted more moderate growth may lie ahead. ``The data show the recovery is in progress, but it's very tentative and there's no inflation,'' said Carol Stone, deputy chief economist with Nomura Securities International in New York. U.S. financial markets took the reports in stride. Both the Dow Jones industrial average and the tech-heavy NASDAQ were up only slightly in noon trading. Treasury securities gained after the mid-morning disclosure of the weaker sentiment data. ``WISHY-WASHY'' RETAIL SALES Economists viewed the retail report as weaker-than-expected, which could potentially be a problem as consumer spending makes up two-thirds of economic activity. The overall 0.2 percent gain was lower than the 0.4 percent increase analysts polled by Reuters had been anticipating. However, excluding auto sales, sales were up 0.4 percent, on target with expectations. While gasoline sales were up 3.8 percent, the biggest gain since January, that was largely due to oil prices that have clambered stubbornly higher in recent weeks. Without gasoline, March sales would have been flat, Commerce said. ``It wasn't so strong as to get on the Fed's radar screen,'' said John Silvia, chief economist with Wachovia Securities in Charlotte, N.C. The gains should be enough to help firms work off what is left of excess inventories built up during last year's slowdown. While that drawdown is expected to be a major driver of growth in the first quarter, it will take a sustained pickup in consumption to convince companies to restart idle assembly lines and begin hiring workers at a fast enough clip to keep unemployment down. From that perspective, the smallness of the drop in consumer sentiment was greeted warmly as a sign the consumer is hanging tough, even as oil prices rise and the situation in the Middle East deteriorates. ``BEST OF BOTH WORLDS'' The mild tone of the retail report was matched by the softness seen in the Labor Department's producer price index report. Even though the 1.0 percent overall increase was the biggest since January 2001, it was boosted by a 5.5 percent increase in energy goods. While some economists said the report hinted that price pressures may be building near the start of the production pipeline, they said it was too soon to worry about them. The combination of moderate sales and low inflation should allow the Federal Reserve, which lowered interest rates to near a four-decade low last year to fight off the recession, to hold off on raising rates soon to keep a lid on inflation. ``Taken together, they're actually the best of both worlds. Ex-autos, consumers are still spending and ex-energy, there's no inflation,'' said Wayne Ayers, chief economist with FleetBoston Financial in Boston. While economic data from a few months ago had economists expecting the central bank to raise rates as early as this summer, the latest readings on sales, inflation and employment have led many to push back that timetable to the fall or even winter. Anthony Karydakis, senior financial economist with BancOne Capital Markets in Chicago, said the numbers had taken on ``a more temperate tone'' recently. ``They seem to be quieting down a little bit, which is not necessarily worrisome,'' he said.

To: Jim Willie CB who wrote (49970)	4/12/2002 3:59:50 PM
From: stockman_scott	Respond to of 65232

Here's an interesting perspective... Bush Strategy in Shambles By Patrick J. Buchanan April 12 2002 President Bush's war on terror is close to being derailed, and his Middle East policy is starting to look like downtown Jenin. What happened? Not long ago, President Bush, victorious in the Afghan war, seemed everywhere invincible. But this last month has left him looking almost impotent in the Middle East. What happened was predicted here six months ago. When Phase I of the war on terror ends, I wrote, the president will face a tough choice: Follow the War Party and invade Iraq, which will shatter his Arab and allied coalition, or try to force a peace in the Palestinian conflict, which will shatter his domestic coalition. President Bush decided to pursue both courses. He is now on the verge of shattering both coalitions. How did it happen? Just weeks ago, Vice President Cheney was sent to the Mideast to line up Arab recruits for the march on Baghdad. But in every capital, he found zero Arab support for a U.S. invasion and angry Arab insistence that America get the Middle East "peace process" back on track. That is the message a chastened Cheney brought home. Then events took charge. A Hamas suicide bomber carried out the Passover massacre, and Ariel Sharon decided to settle the hash of the man he believes to be the godfather of all anti-Jewish terror: Yasser Arafat. When the president, in a rambling Easter weekend interview, said that his sympathy lay with Sharon, a firestorm swept the Arab world. The president was warned that his Arab allies, such as the king of Jordan, might be in mortal peril of violent overthrow. So the president did a stunning about-face. Calling on Sharon to get his troops out of Palestinian cities, he sent Secretary Powell to the region to effect a cease-fire. But when the president moved off the Baghdad war track and onto the Oslo peace track, he scheduled a confrontation with Sharon and his U.S. allies. For Sharon rejects Oslo's land-for-peace formula as an Arab scheme to shrink Israel and enlarge the Arafat enclave for a final assault on the Jewish state. Today, the president's Mideast policy collides with Sharon's on almost every point. The president demands a cease-fire, an end to Israeli incursions in the West Bank, negotiations now between Israel and the Palestinian Authority, the dismantling of Israeli settlements and Israel's withdrawal to something like its 1967 borders. How far apart are he and Sharon? Colin Powell was quoted in Madrid as saying, "(Arafat) is the partner that Israel will have to deal with," even as Sharon was calling the Powell decision to meet Arafat "a tragic mistake." Sharon's envoy to the U.S. media, Benjamin Netanyahu, says: "The Oslo agreements are dead. Arafat killed them." He says Arafat should be deported. "You cannot uproot terror without uprooting (the Palestinian Authority)." "I do not accept the word 'Palestinian state,'" Netanyahu told The Washington Times, which added, "(Netanyahu) would apportion an autonomous Palestinian area, overseen by Israel." This is the Bantustan solution no Palestinian leader could accept without meeting the fate of Anwar Sadat. Where, then, do we stand? Sharon considers Arafat a terrorist and is resolved to smash his Palestinian Authority as a nest of terrorists. He has never shaken hands with Arafat and has no intention of negotiating with him or of going back to the Oslo process or of accepting the Barak Plan, let alone the Saudi Plan. The ball is in the president's court. If Sharon refuses to pull out of the West Bank or negotiate with Arafat, how does the president compel him? And if he cannot bring Sharon around, what does he tell an Arab world, enraged by Israel's re-invasion of the West Bank and appalled at the killing and carnage? By December 2001, President Bush had overthrown the Taliban, smashed al-Qaida, stood at 90 percent approval, and had behind him a united country and international coalition. Today, he is under attack from his former media allies, Congress is rising in support of Sharon, his international coalition is history, Arafat refuses to renounce the suicide bombers, and the Arabs are celebrating Palestinian resistance. Ronald Reagan was never in this situation, but Richard Nixon was. In November 1969, his presidency at break-point, Nixon went to the nation and asked the Silent Majority to stand behind his Vietnam policy, then under siege. President Bush may have to go the same route or abandon his Mideast policy. But he has a huge reservoir of goodwill, and if he will tell America what must be done in the Middle East and the war on terror, he may yet prevail. But does the president know what he wants to do? Does he see how this Middle East war ends or how this war on terror plays out? Has he thought it all through?