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To: kdavy who wrote (187)	4/12/2002 5:55:48 PM
From: Sam Citron	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 13403

OT Good arguments for caution in a sector you appear to know quite well. What makes you convinced that this is a propitious time for the Moore's Law chant? I have watched you enter and exit Cary's mandir quite frequently, but do you also reside there LT? You are practicing abstinence at home but indulgence abroad, so to speak. <g> Sam

To: kdavy who wrote (187)	4/12/2002 6:39:49 PM
From: Jacob Snyder	Read Replies (4) \| Respond to of 13403

Pharma/Biotech: Yes, timing is everything. These stocks are so volatile, it is especially imortant to buy before the good news is out (but not a decade before!). Everybody is saying that the next Microsoft is a biotech. But noone knows which one it is, or if it has even been founded yet. One of the main things that has slowly pushed me into investing in biotech (after watching and doing nothing for years), is the fact that the BigPharmWhales have been, for the last several years, steadily buying the LittleBiotechMinnows. They used to do licensing deals, basically cherry-picking the few good prospects out of the many good ideas the biotechs are working on. That is, BigPharm used LittleBiotech as their R&D arm, while offloading the risk onto owners of biotech shares. Now, however, BigPharm has decided, increasingly, to buy biotechs outright. They have apparently decided the risk/reward has now tilted in favor of owning biotech. And they are in the best position to make that risk/reward judgement. The other thing that has pushed me into this sector, is the realization that there is continuing inflation in drug prices. In spite of all the complaints about it, in spite of a major effort by the last President, in spite of nil inflation in the general economy, drug prices keep going up. Nobody else has pricing power, anywhere in the economy. Not only are prices rising, but there is a LT secular trend for people to take more and more drugs. "Lifestyle" drugs, drugs to treat chronic conditions, the ever-increasing number of infections that require multi-drug therapy (sometimes for years), I see these trends as well-established, and likely to continue for decades into the future. Even more than with JDSU, I will be moving into this sector hesitently and incrementally. I'm using ETFs, as I am not smart enough to figure out the specific winners. Just started buying, and will add, in small increments, on every further 5% decline in BBH and IBB.