Silicon Investor (SI) -- The First Internet Community

STOCKTALK

We've detected that you're using an ad content blocking browser plug-in or feature. Ads provide a critical source of revenue to the continued operation of Silicon Investor. We ask that you disable ad blocking while on Silicon Investor in the best interests of our community. If you are not using an ad blocker but are still receiving this message, make sure your browser's tracking protection is set to the 'standard' level.

Technology Stocks : IDTI - an IC Play on Growth Markets -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Taut Knot who wrote (11378)	4/14/2002 12:48:52 PM
From: Rob S.	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 11555

We will probably see a spring rally but then I suspect the SOX heads lower through the summer. The market has a memory but reality is not matching up to expectations. With growth of about 4% in PC sales expected in 2002 and growth in telecommunications related areas probably ending down 5%-10% for the year, there is nothing on the horizon other than inventory adjustments to fuel the sector. I just imagine that as results and guidance comes in during the next couple of quarters that disappointment will be the result and along with it a reduction in multiples. Right now we are at the bottom of the trading range and there is a good chance for a rebound on a technical trend and easing of Middle East tensions. You'll probably come out by trading the range for a while but I'd think twice about building long term positions yet.

To: Taut Knot who wrote (11378)	4/18/2002 6:51:06 PM
From: Rob S.	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 11555

I shorted a little IDTI this afternoon. MSFT, SUN and others have come in with lower than expected revenues and outlooks. Some of the earnings recently reported met numbers only by virtue of spending cuts. Corporations still are not robustly buying. Semi prices, which had appeared to bottom and turn up last quarter, now show that was probably more an end-of-inventory correction ripple. Recently prices of microprocessors and memory components has been headed lower and supply looks plentiful. The key telecomm sector continues to look like a sick little puppy; despite a glimmer of hope from AWE and Sprint, Nokia and other handset manufacturers shed new light on the fact that demand for newer generations of handsets is not materializing as forecast. Now I see even some fundamentally "bullet-proof" areas of IT spending, such as security and utility software, being pitched as worthy of buying based on ROI. This shows the shift that has occurred in the corporate mind-set: from buying out of fear of being left behind to not buying unless a quick profit can be made from the expense and effort. I don't think this is a trivial or short lived phenomena. Times will eventually get better, but only after more grinding of the millstone to turn out better and most cost effective products and services. The bubble in key semi driving sectors may take years to become fully absorbed in the overall growth of the economy.