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Politics : WAR on Terror. Will it engulf the Entire Middle East? -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: stockman_scott who wrote (2241)	4/13/2002 11:58:42 AM
From: Hawkmoon	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 32591

What's an interesting angle on this story is that quite possibly the Israeli action has actually created sufficient political support for Arafat amongst Palestinians that, were he to actually actively campaign for a halt to the suicide bombings and a cease fire, he might actually find some listeners. And has KHS has mentioned, it is empowering the moderates in the Palestinian power structure. Before, as we've noted at numerous times, Arafat lacked the ability to dominate his Hamas and PFLP rivals. But the balance of power within the PA may have changed in his favor. All he has to do is assert that Palestinians have made their point and would welcome outside support in establishing such a state, in whatever form that it is permitted to take. It's not that I trust Arafat, or even believe he has what it takes to actually govern and develop the PA. But merely that, as his rivals are eliminated one by one by the Israelis, his presence (under the "security" of Israeli house arrest) fills the power void being created. Technically, he's the only major Palestinian leader who isn't currently fearing for his life (and maybe Hannan Ashawri). But his future status will be decided on the terms of the Israelis and international powers who dare to intervene in this morasse. Of course, this scenario could be eliminated by outside Arab intervention, but I find that unlikely. Other Arab powers might not like what's going on, but they aren't exactly in the position to risk it all by doing something about it. It strikes me that the US is permitting Arafat to mince words by his condemning terrorism against civilians on all sides. This permits him to save face, while hopefully still accomplishing the mission of implementing a cease fire. But if he rejects this opportunity, it would seem that he's aware that the US is politically powerless to stop Israel from finishing him and any semblance of the current PA structure for years to come. Hawk