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Technology Stocks : Semi Equipment Analysis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Return to Sender who wrote (2742)	4/13/2002 1:54:23 PM
From: Donald Wennerstrom	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 95471

The SOX has been trending downward for the past 5 weeks after its "6 day surge", when it went from 510.83 to 637.94, a gain of 25 percent, the 6 day period closing on 3/8/02. Since 3/8, the SOX has gone from 637.94 to 560.67, a loss of 12 percent - in other words a retrace of about 50 percent of the 6 day gain. The table below shows the action of the individual stocks over the past 5 weeks. The semi-equips have been doing their share to hold the average up. As you say, the earnings guidance this week will be very important in determining SOX direction for the future weeks. 3/8/02 4/12/02 FST CALL NEXT FST CALL CLOSE CLOSE PERCENT NXT YR YEAR LNG TRM SYMBOL PRICE PRICE CHANGE EARN PE GROWTH PE/G AMAT* 53.53 50.60 -5 1.32 38 22 1.72 MXIM 57.36 53.95 -6 1.05 51 25 2.06 TER* 39.20 36.80 -6 0.27 136 20 6.81 NSM 34.87 32.62 -6 0.36 91 18 5.03 KLAC* 69.47 63.71 -8 1.30 49 25 1.96 NVLS* 53.97 48.71 -10 1.22 40 25 1.60 MOT 14.91 13.44 -10 0.40 34 15 2.24 TXN 35.71 31.80 -11 0.72 44 20 2.21 LLTC 46.86 41.16 -12 0.81 51 25 2.03 ALTR 24.81 21.47 -13 0.49 44 27 1.62 XLNX 45.80 39.20 -14 0.51 77 25 3.07 INTC 34.17 28.39 -17 1.00 28 18 1.58 LSI 18.58 15.30 -18 0.47 33 20 1.63 AMD 16.21 13.15 -19 0.66 20 15 1.33 LSCC 21.10 16.77 -21 0.52 32 25 1.29 BRCM 44.16 34.15 -23 0.52 66 40 1.64 MU 38.16 29.06 -24 2.14 14 20 0.68 TOTALS 648.87 570.28 -12 13.76 41 SOX-X 637.94 560.67 -12 COMPQX1929.67 1756.19 -9 *In Semi-Equip Group

To: Return to Sender who wrote (2742)	4/13/2002 2:14:31 PM
From: robert b furman	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 95471

Hi RtS, View your chart on a weekly scale. Note: 1)BB coming closely together 2)The SOX has come off the bottom of the BB in Sept - bounced off the top BB in March and now it getting support at the mid-point - which also happens to be a convergence with the 50 MA. 3)It is a Doji - a moment of indecision I believe what we're seeing here is a pivotal inflection point.A release from negative expectations to a refreshing change to positive expectations.All based on the expectations of improving earnings. I think from here the Sox pops up and walks up the upper BB. Here's my tracking stock - the 800 pound Gorilla that has led investment during this entire downturn and is currently suffering from "Too lean of an inventory".YUP YOU READ ME RIGHT - TOO LEAN OF AN INVENTORY. INTC - the proxy stock for the SOX!! stockcharts.com[h,a]waclyyay[pb50,200!d20,2][vc60][iUl14!Uk14]&pref=G Look at the BB - the double bump on the weekly 50 ma at 28.Just as any double bottom should it has violated the 50 - I hope and believe just momentarily. GULP Now the daily: stockcharts.com[h,a]daclyyay[pb50,200!d20,2][vc60][iUl14!Uk14]&pref=G Note the double bump on 28. You're the guy that loves to buy oversold in Williams % R.gg How does entering it's 5 th spike into oversold grab you?? If you can anticipate when -DI crosses below + DI - LIFTOFF - buckle your seatbelt rocket launch will occur. The best part - earnings announce Tuesday 04/16/02. nasdaq.com`&selected=INTC` Bryant was quoted last week as running on "too lean an inventory of Pentium IV's".The first.13 micron 300MM fab is coming on stream with bigger margins 2.4 Ghz Pentium IV's this month. I'm betting that hooking up on Intel's tail will give us a quick ride to it's recent past high 36.50ish and then higher. Worst case scenario back to 20 - 8 points of loser. Least optimistic 36.50 - 8 1/2 point ride. best case - scared to say.gg One thing for sure - not much time left and we'll know! Bob