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Politics : High Tolerance Plasticity -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: quehubo who wrote (13267)	4/13/2002 8:40:55 PM
From: kodiak_bull	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 23153

QH & DB: I'd like to call the top in the homeboys, I really would, but thanks to the teachings of Chairman Dabum, I've just stopped treating them like anything different than the rest of the alphabet soup (EMC, RIG, MDR, GS, MER)--to me they are (they must be) simply another set of charts and ticker symbols. I'm probably not making myself clear here, but one of the things I typed out and printed in 16 point type and pasted on my computer is: Never Short a Story Stock. What this means is I have to stop believing in stories, such as Krispy Kreme is a POS company (substitute PNRA if you like) and it's just gotta fall, we're facing an imminent energy crisis, the drug stocks have been beaten up enough that they're now value stocks, and everybody's favorite: the homeboys are the last bubble and will veddy veddy soon revert to book value or less. Etc. And, although you can join in the mania and go long story stocks (especially if their charts are defying gravity and look to continue), woe betide the investor who with his ratiocinating brain mucks around the spread sheets and the balance sheets and macro and micro economics and determines, yes, by golly, these damned homeboys are overpriced and must certainly fall. And when they do, we shall all live happily ever after. Never short a story stock (AMZN, KKD, PNRA, RYL) because it's a story stock and the story is ludicrous. Ludicrous stories continue, long after the thrill of telling them is gone (sorry, John Mellencamp). Each of these "counter-stories" is no doubt true and will be borne out by "future history" when she is written, but prudent investors can get killed in the meantime and if you've been killed in the meantime, I mean what exactly could be worse? The mean time is the most important time. Therefore, this is a longwinded way of saying I'm neither watching nor un-watching the homeboys. I'm looking with a cool glance at any and all stocks which appear on my screen and appeal to my scrutiny and tell me, in the secret language of Siberian Huskies and Sharpcharts, that they plan to be moving either up or down in the very near future AND that they do NOT plan to be moving in the opposite direction they are so obviously hinting at. What I mean is a stock which looks to be turning down, looks to be turning down and HARD, and does not look, not by stochastics or Wm% or Rabbit-o-meter or CCI or Candlesticks or moving averages to show even the slightest interest in moving up. For a stock which is showing me it wants to move up, I want to see the same, absolute fixation on the skyward direction. If one or all the of homeboys wanders into my neighborhood and makes these appropriate noises, I will be more than happy to pounce; otherwise, I'll be looking to short more names like the recent AOL MER and GS and go long things like the recent TTEK and BKI and HWP. (Of course, I DO happen to have about 9 of the homeboys on my watch screens, so I hope to be lucky enough to see the big move when it happens and is confirmed, but there you are.) Happy Price Discovery, Kb