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To: Donald Wennerstrom who wrote (207)	4/14/2002 9:39:11 AM
From: robert b furman	Respond to of 13403

Hi Don, If good earnings don't do it - we're in deep doo doo. I think we've all been pelted with such a long barage of bad news that we become numb to the possibility of good growth in the first half of 02. We all knew a turn around was in the cards for the first half of 01 (at least that was the thought process as things deteriorated in 00). Then it was the second half of 01 - with 9/11 that immediately became a recession and the next recovery just skipped the first half of 02.In the car business the last quarter of 01 picked up and this quarter was good too. I think the big surprise will be a global turnaround that slowly starts with this quarter - all GDP numbers have been surprising - I think earnings of small techs (which are very lean) will surprise many also. After all - all 9/11 did was drop rates accelerate government spending and give Bush his military budget that he wanted.All events were stimulatory. We'll certainly know over the next two weeks.It is a pivotal time. Thanks for the post. Bob