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To: Kirk © who wrote (208)	4/13/2002 7:18:48 PM
From: Cary Salsberg	Respond to of 13403

We have not heard much, lately, about money supply and interest rates and their current effect on the economy and how long inflation will remain at bay in this environment. If capital expenditures are the chief technology problem in an environment of low rates and rapid money growth, some of these technology companies better shape up before money starts getting tighter. Again, I may be wrong, but it seems to me that this is an unusually difficult time for technology (not a normal cyclical downturn) and that "normal" behavior such as "buying low" is much riskier, now.

To: Kirk © who wrote (208)	4/14/2002 9:47:23 AM
From: robert b furman	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 13403

Hi Kirk, Well said. Excellent point about a track record of past cycles being a requirement. The closest I ever got to the internet bubble stocks was Amat,Nvls, and Cohu. Before I invest they must be debt free,have real products with market share leadership,depreciated assets. The business plans of MBA's and an IPO creating riches thru an overheated venture capital shell game was less than appealing to me.I sort of felt like a leppar as everyone was making a quick killing on CMGI - but I'm way too conservative for that game. The only wealth I've made in the stock market was positional trading of cyclical stocks that were bottoming out after a business cycle blewoff. Just a one trick pony I guess. Bob

To: Kirk © who wrote (208)	4/14/2002 4:30:35 PM
From: Jacob Snyder	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 13403

I would agree: Buying into fear, while the stock is still going down, and before the company's sales have started back up, is only safe if you're sure the company will be a survivor. And if you're prepared to wait. The main disadvantage of Cary's method is, you never get the lowest prices, if you wait till the fundamentals have clearly turned. If you want to be buying at the bottom, you have to sacrifice certainty. If the uncertainty is when, not if, I'll accept the risk.