To: GST who wrote (141535 ) 4/14/2002 8:44:52 PM From: Victor Lazlo Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 164684 right back at ya! " The next question is obvious: Why shouldn't Iran, Libya, and Saudi Arabia, all angry at the United States for backing Israel, now join Iraq and use oil as a weapon to punish America? Joseph Stanislaw has an answer. ''The oil producers have learned that using oil as a weapon can be dangerous,'' said Stanislaw, president of Cambridge Energy Research Associates and a longtime observer of energy markets. The 1970s taught the oil countries that the rules of the marketplace apply to all commodities, including oil. Over a period of years, both producers and consumers of oil adjusted to the higher prices. On the supply side, new players - Mexico, Norway, Angola, Malaysia - pumped more oil and took market share away from the Arab producers. On the demand side, people found a way to cut back on their use of oil. They drove smaller cars, they insulated their homes, they burned more natural gas. In 1979 the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries pumped 31 million barrels of oil a day; by 1982 the same countries were pumping just 18 million barrels. In the mid-1980s the price of oil briefly flirted with $10 a barrel. The price of oil has since recovered but the economies of the oil producers never have. Some, like Iran, desperately need their oil money. Even wealthy producers like the Saudis have financial woes. Writing in The Wall Street Journal last week, two analysts from the Cato Institute put the matter bluntly. ''Without petrodollars the OPEC Arab countries return to camels and tents.'' Bottom line: The oil producers, even those most sympathetic to the Palestinians, are in no rush to join an oil embargo. Assuming such rationality prevails, the price of oil should stay within a reasonable range, say the experts. Here's hoping economics continues to trump politics and reason continues to trump emotion. "boston.com