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Politics : The Donkey's Inn -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Patricia Trinchero who wrote (3603)	4/14/2002 3:03:05 PM
From: geode00	Respond to of 15516

IMO, this is what Bob is calling, with some minor variations on his 100 indicators theme: stockcharts.com[m,a]maclyyay[d19900101,20020414][pb50!b200][vc60][iUb14!La12,26,9]&pref=G Watch the MACD of the monthly S&P chart. From reading the boards, to the best of my understanding this is what happened: - Bob was completely wrong calling the 1987-1988 situation - He went 100% invested in 1991 (see chart) - He was waffling in 1994-5 (see chart) - He saw positive divergences in the major indicators in October 1998 which kept him in the market. I don't have the figures but I suspect there was also massive liquidity a la 9/11 due to the LTCM situation. That was a good call IMO. - With bullish sentiment running out of control, valuations insane and the Fed on the bearish side of things, the indicator finally rolled over in January 2000 and Bob went 35% out of the market (he later increased that to 40% but never went out of the market competely to this day - i.e. he rode it down). - In October of 2000, he went nuts (IMO) and thought he could either 1. move the market with his piddling radio show or 2. predict the market with his piddling trading skills. Consequently, with his amazing arrogance and lack of knowledge, he rode the QQQ's (up to approx 1/3rd of a portfolio) down to 27 from the mid 80's. He's still in the QQQs having taking a tax loss last year. - Some predict that this, being the "off presidential election year" that apparently the Stock Traders Alamanac discusses, there will be a buyable bottom a la 1998, 1994, 1990. Will the MACD in the monthly S&P turn positive for the first time since 1990? It will be interesting to watch that indicator which TA types say is pretty reliable (the longer term indicator is more reliable than that with a shorter timeframe). As for the QQQ trade (see next post)

To: Patricia Trinchero who wrote (3603)	4/18/2002 3:22:18 PM
From: MSI	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 15516

Just want to jump in and say I've had the same experience w. Brinker. He's the conservative side of my portfolio, and been right in general for 10 years, at least for me. I don't understand those who get negative results, unless they stay too leveraged or too long in a recommended position, or too heavily invested. Simple things like GNMA's worked great the last few years. I don't get the newsletter, just listen in once in a while, and check the website. In the risk port I'm more risk-oriented on tech and the real estate-as-an-investment, but that could be the difference between me and his national audience, who no doubt have different experiences and goals.