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Strategies & Market Trends : Zeev's Turnips - No Politics -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: ChrisJP who wrote (51111)	4/14/2002 12:02:33 PM
From: DebtBomb	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 99280

;-), Agree Chris, give it time, it will bottom. Yes, more of these dudes need to go belly up, too many players in this overcapacity situation. The overhang out there in tech is immense, IMO, sellers at every corner. Insiders dumping their loads, yeppo, they know. This tech bubble is still unwinding, IMHO. And, the uncertainty out there is huge. Lot's of wildcards, war, terrorists, oil spikes, deflation, stagflation, scams, crooks, SEC, debt. Having said all of that, you know when baby boomer spending peaks, keeping unemployment low. ;-)

To: ChrisJP who wrote (51111)	4/14/2002 12:08:40 PM
From: DebtBomb	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 99280

Oil Set to Rise as Chavez Back in Office biz.yahoo.com

To: ChrisJP who wrote (51111)	4/14/2002 2:38:14 PM
From: mishedlo	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 99280

I'm just saying that we are much closer to the bottom than to the top The top of where? In what timeframe? With what expectation of getting back there? Let's start with the Dow. Does that have more upside potential or downside. DOW about 4K would be about right but it probably only falls to 7K-8K or so. That could occur this year or next. What is the high this year or next. I would guess 12500 max and I really do not see how. Now the S&P. Where is that headed. I forsee a possible 40% haircut in two years. How high can it get in 2 years. 40% rise from here. No chance IMO. Now the Naz. Tougher. 1200 is possible, heck 800 could be possible for all I know. Is 3000 possible in two years? I sincerely doubt it. 2500 maybe. Perhaps we are midpoint on this but perhaps the real two year trange is 1000 to 2200. Now where are we? Closer to the bottom than the top. Well if your timeframe is forever then I have to agree. If it is 10 years I have to agree. If it is 3-5 years it is probable but not necessarily so, and if it is 1-2 years I doubt it. Tell us on what basis we are closer to the bottom than the top, on which indicies, and in what timeframe. Forever is a long ways off. We simply are not getting back to 5000 even in 5 years and probably 10 years IMO. This closer to the bottom than the top BS has been preached by Wall Street ever since Naz 3500. Totally laughable. If one believes stocks will fall to historical valuations before we have a sustainable rally, then we could be a long ways off. M