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Politics : High Tolerance Plasticity -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: ~digs who wrote (13279)	4/15/2002 10:47:51 AM
From: kodiak_bull	Respond to of 23153

GE's price (not value): I think Olstein could be right that GE might be "valued" at $25, but I don't know exactly what the basis for that would be. I suspect it's the same fundamental analysis that valued it at $52 earlier this year, p/e, peg ratio, debt/equity, product quality-- but-- adjusted downward (let's just cut it in half, shall we?) for all the cooked numbers. I'm much more interested in where GE "prices" in the medium term future. My guess is, given the force and velocity of this chart, it will be lower than $25, perhaps as low as $19??? Dare I say it? $18? Would that be fair value? I dunno. It would be fair pricing at the time since it would represent willing (if traumatized) seller capitulating to willing (if smiling slyly) buyer, though. I think what will drive this chart relentlessly down will be the incredible volume and pain involved in the capitulation. Not even a meltdown of IBM could have the full and nasty effect that GE is going to have, because people who bought IBM were conservative, prudent investors but what the hey it was still technology. Folks who bought GE bought an American icon. This icon is falling hard. I'm actually thinking of shorting a slice of this one if it would generate a small rally. Kb