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To: Les H who wrote (1783)	4/15/2002 9:16:30 AM
From: Les H	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 29599

Dow ew clearstation.etrade.com

To: Les H who wrote (1783)	4/15/2002 6:32:55 PM
From: Les H	Respond to of 29599

What to expect now. April 15, 2002. Ord Oracle. This is option expiration week and there is usually a bullish bias during this period. We have had a couple of bullish downtick readings over the last several days. A 739-downtick reading was recorded on April 10 and a 574 downtick was recorded today. For a bullish signal to be generated on the tick index, the first downtick reading should be near 750 or higher and the second should be at least 70% of the first. Today's 574 downtick is 78% of April 10, 739 downticks. Therefore, the downtick readings have generated a bullish sign here. The Summation index on the NYSE also has turned up for the short term and implies the NYSE may bounce here. However, the SPX summation index is still trending down and implies the short-term trend is down on the SPX. The Rydex ratio is neutral and not giving information right now. The "5 day ARMS" on the NYSE is bullish, closing Friday at 7.71. The "Total Market New high/New low" indicator is still above "200" and remains on a "Sell signal". This indicator has worked the last 6 times in a row over the last 3 years. Therefore, if the S&P did pop up here, it should be short lived. The low bearish VIX reading tells a similar story. There may be a bounce here, but the bigger trend is down and we like to take the trades with the trend. We will wait for the bounce and find the next short. The NDX McClellan Oscillator is not producing a positive divergence here and the Summation Index is still trending down and implies the trend is still down. No extreme downtick reading nearing 900 appeared on this decline to indicate an exhaustion move to the downside. The "5 day ARMS" close Friday at 9.08. The "5 day ARMS" approaches or exceed 12.00 near lows on the NDX. A bullish "Spring" occurred on Friday and did so on lighter volume, which adds to the bullishness of the "Spring". The VIXN is still at a historical low level and a bearish sign. The 200-day median average comes in near 51 and today's close was 41.86. We think the safer trade is to wait for the bounce and short on the next sell signal. No new trades on the NDX for the moment. The Weekly and months charts on the XAU remain bullish. The monthly charts imply Gold is in a powerful "wave 3" up in Elliott Wave terms. Short term a consolidation may have started that could last a couple of months. A bearish short-term pattern called an "Upthrust" may have occurred on April 2. The XAU is making an attempt to test the "Upthrust" now. If the test is on lighter volume (as it appears to be) then one can expect the consolidation has started. This condition does not change the fact the XAU is in a bull market longer term. This potential pull back will gives us a chance to add to positions. ASA has support near 26 - 27. We have done some new studies on HL. There really is no significant resistance until HL get up near 3.60 level, which is the 1997 and 1998 highs. We are long HL at 1.40 and holding. Drooy has resistance near 4.00 and support near 3.00. AEM has resistance near 20 and appears no worthwhile pull back will materialize on this stock. marketweb.com