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Technology Stocks : How high will Microsoft fly? -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: jonkai who wrote (67334)	4/15/2002 4:51:01 PM
From: Dave	Respond to of 74651

.Net (starting with its unpopular Microsoft Licensing 6.0 Program )has all of MSFT's customers up in arms already with the extra charges MSFT wants to charge them... Might this unpopularity explain why the concentrated sales effort of Microsoft's marketing muscle and propaganda budget managed to amassed a customer list with ZERO (I'll repeat that just for emphasis: ZERO) companies interested in Hailstorm/MyServices, the highly vaunted cornerstone of its .Net initiative? Once more: Zero. Before you revisionists (Hi Dave Howe) try to explain that Hailstorm was never really that important anyway, here's the word from just one year ago: Microsoft Looks to Take Net by HailStorm Monday March 19, [2001] 9:06 pm Eastern Time TheStandard.com By Dominic Gates Message 15530979 .net REDMOND, Wash. — Bill Gates launched a new business model for its Internet services on Monday, taking a bold step toward a world in which computer users routinely pay for software as a subscription service. The project — code-named HailStorm — will see Microsoft roll out a suite of basic Web services, set up massive data-center operations to host end-user data and create a platform on which other companies can develop Web applications that use those services. Ultimately, the services will be accessible from any platform — not only Windows, but also Unix, Macintosh and Palm — and from any device connected to the Internet, including PCs, handhelds and cell phones. ... In remarks after Monday's launch event, held on the Microsoft campus in Redmond, Gates characterized this latest initiative as a boost to the Internet Economy, "especially when things are so gloomy." "Microsoft will operate HailStorm as a business," said VP Bob Muglia. "While HailStorm is a bold new kind of services platform, it brings with it an old-fashioned, retro business model. We think users will be willing to pay. ... [I particularly like this part, where Microsoft's "partners" got up on stage to say they were with Microsoft on this one, and now, a year later, ZERO of them have agreed to Microsoft's terms, and ZERO have decided to entrust their customer data with Microsoft]: Executives from American Express, eBay, Expedia and Groove Networks — companies that plan to hook up to and use HailStorm services — joined Gates onstage Monday and offered demos of prototype Web applications that will use HailStorm services. ... [Check this launch schedule out too]: The first HailStorm services will be available with the launch of Windows XP, now expected in September. An entire suite of services is expected in beta form by year-end. Full services are expected in 2002. Microsoft's ambitions with this new service platform are enormous. The software giant aims to build a community of paying subscribers that will dwarf AOL's 32 million-strong membership base. A source familiar with the software giant's plans said the company is building the infrastructure to handle a global Internet membership numbering as many as 100 million within a year of HailStorm services becoming widely available. ... [Finally, in the Stating-The-Obvious department, we have this all-important afterthough about entrusting secure customer data to the likes of Microsoft]: Many people might be uncomfortable giving Microsoft such information. Many more will be worried about security risks given the well-publicized hacks on Microsoft sites in recent months. ... ZERO. Dave

To: jonkai who wrote (67334)	4/15/2002 4:52:10 PM
From: David Howe	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 74651

Hey freak, read this about AOL's subscription numbers and then GET A CLUE. nypost.com TICKING TIME BOMB By DAN COX April 11, 2002 -- Poor Dick Parsons. The talented exec just got to take over what has been billed as the nation's biggest media company, and his problems are multiplying daily. Yesterday, there was a loud buzz on Wall Street that the company's AOL unit is in far worse shape than anyone thought - and may have accounting problems. AOL shares plummeted, closing at $20.71, hitting a 15-month low. More than 73 million shares changed hands, nearly four times the average six-month daily volume. While AOL execs are tight-lipped, the congenial Parsons has been frank with important Wall Streeters about the depth of the problems at the company. Investors are focusing on subscription and ad revenue figures released by AOL Time Warner, and are increasingly questioning their validity. While the company boasts some 34 million AOL subscribers, industry pros are saying some 25 percent don't pay a dime. By one estimate, only 20 million subscribers actually pay. The rest are promotional freebies, which the Internet giant bumped up from 33 days to 45 days, and other free connections. While AOL Time Warner doesn't break out the numbers, one insider said at least eight million of those subscribers are overseas. Investors are also questioning the numbers AOL puts out for ad revenue. Some say a big chunk of those online ad revenues actually comes from bartering ad space with other AOL Time Warner properties. By one estimate, some 22 percent of all AOL ad dollars come from other AOL Time Warner companies. AOL insiders say the Securities and Exchange Commission has not looked into the matter. SEC officials declined comment. Further worrying investors are the problems AOL is having getting significant broadband distribution. While AOL is distributed at high speeds over Time Warner cable systems, the company has been unable to broker deals to get on other major cable systems. Comcast, which is soon to be the nation's biggest cable operator, is believed unlikely to distribute AOL unless is can work out a deal to sell its 25 percent stake in Time Warner Entertainment back to AOL. But doing so would cost AOL $10 billion - an amount that would drive the company's debt to some $50 billion, causing problems with the bond-rating agencies. Concerns were fueled further yesterday by news that CSFB had arranged the sale of 18.4 million shares for a single seller at $20 each, for a total of $368 million. The loss in market value at AOL Time Warner is making the merger of the two companies look like one of the biggest corporate blunders of all time for Time Warner. Then-Chairman Gerald Levin bet the company, and his own legacy, on a deal with AOL just at the height of the dot-com bubble. Since then, the value of the combined company has fallen from $254 billion to $92 billion. Eyebrows were raised recently when Levin announced he was departing the company early, saying he wanted to put the poetry back into his life. Surprisingly Time Warner's Dick Parsons, not AOL's Bob Pittman, got the job of succeeding him. Now Parsons is faced with trying to clean up the mess and restore some credibility with Wall Street. He moved yesterday to head off speculation about the AOL unit by moving Pittman there to run it.