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Technology Stocks : Semi Equipment Analysis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: The Ox who wrote (2779)	4/15/2002 6:05:37 PM
From: Return to Sender	Respond to of 95456

From Briefing.com: 5:43PM Novellus winning analyst praise (NVLS) 50.40 +1.69: -- Update -- Call just concluded... tone from NVLS management was pretty upbeat throughout call and most analysts commended NVLS for its Q1 performance and Q2 guidance... NVLS +3.34 at 53.74 5:04PM Novellus cites pickup in DRAM investment (NVLS) 50.40 +1.69: -- Update -- On call, says there was a definite pickup in DRAM investment levels in Q1 and expects the same in Q2... NVLS +2.67 at 53.07; MU +0.04 at 28.74 5:00PM Novellus to target inventory reduction (NVLS) 50.40 +12.69: -- Update -- On call, says inventories will be a major area of foucs; targeting $80 mln reduction in overall inventories over the next three quarters... notes inventories were up approx. $20 mln qtr/qtr due to forecasted growth in shipments and stocking of spare parts for newer technologies... separately, projects gross margins will increase sequentially to approx. 50% on an SAB 101 basis by Q4 and better than that on a shipment basis... NVLS +2.30 at 52.70 4:53PM Novellus guides higher for Q2 (NVLS) 50.40 +1.69: -- Update -- On call, says it expects Q2 net bookings to be approx. $250 mln, shipments to be approx. $215 mln, SAB 101 revenues to be $220 mln and EPS of $0.06... Multex consensus revenue and EPS estimates are $164.94 mln and a loss of $0.02... NVLS +1.95 at 52.35 4:50PM Novellus optimistic about Q2 (NVLS) 50.40 +1.69: -- Update -- On call, says that it is cautiously optimistic that Q2 will show significant improvement over Q1... notes that Q1 net bookings were $175 mln for Q1, which exceeded the guidance of $150 mln in mid-quarter update; orders were up in every region except U.S.... NVLS +1.48 at 51.88 4:25PM Novellus deferred revs fall; gross margin a little light (NVLS) 50.40 +1.69: -- Update -- Co's gross margin for the qtr was 42.2% vs co's mid-qtr forecast of "low 40s" margins (Salomon Smith Barney's gross margin est for Q1 was 43.5%). Q1 deferred revenues fell to $117.4 mln, compared to $140 mln in Q4 and $182.7 mln in Q3... NVLS shares trading at $50.73 in after-hours. Competitors: AMAT (-0.08), KLAC (+0.01). 4:10PM Novellus tops consensus estimates (NVLS) 50.40 +1.69: -- Update -- Reports Q1 pro forma loss of $0.02, $0.07 better than the Multex consensus; revs were $169.7 mln, vs consensus of $154.0 mln. "Q1 results were achieved because the semiconductor industry has begun to show improvement in capital spending... In the first quarter of 2002, we achieved a bookings-to-shipments ratio greater than 1:1 for the first time since the quarter ended December 31, 2000." 5:46PM Texas Instruments (TXN) 32.13 +0.33: -- Update -- On call, company says operating margin will increase in Q2 due to higher sales...maintains its cap-ex budget of $800 mln. Q1 was below forecast, but that should be made up later in the year...stock at 33.14. 5:44PM Texas Instruments (TXN) 32.13 +0.33: -- Update -- On conference call, company says it is seeing positive signs for revenue growth. Book-to-bill was above one for each segment....Orders were up 20% sequentially....stock at 33.10. 4:34PM Texas Instruments beats by a penny; guides Q2 higher (TXN) 32.13 +0.33: -- Update -- Reports Q1 (Mar) pro forma EPS of $0.01, a penny better than the Multex consensus of breakeven; revenues were $1.83 bln vs the $1.81 bln consensus. Company sees Q2 EPS of $0.06 and revenues of $2.0 bln, better than consensus estimates of $0.03 and $1.93 bln. 3:19PM Credence Sys initiated with a Buy rating at Fulcrum (CMOS) 22.76 +0.91: Fulcrum initiates coverage of CMOS with a BUY rating and a $35 price target; firm believes that now is the right time to be in the stock ahead of a major orders inflection point in Q3, which should be driven by a recovery in semi unit volume and automatic test equipment biz in Asia; stock also trades at a 50% discount to peers on a price/book basis. 3:58PM Semi Equip : Analysts remain cautious on group's valuation. Lehman Brothers notes stocks rallied 26% in Mar., seemingly discounting both a strong H2 recovery and a meaningful portion of the next upcycle; firm believes a better opportunity to purchase shares will be when they come under seasonal summer pressure or when capacity additions resume in the chip business; names BRKS, FSII, and KLIC as stocks that appear to currently offer relatively good value. UBS Warburg also believes that current share prices fully discount a robust recovery, and would be more appropriate valuations for a much later stage in the upcycle; firm recommends investors position in the names with the greatest potential for 2003 performance above street expectations, their favorites being NVLS and VSEA. 2:22PM Motorola (MOT) 13.85 +0.41: Although no consensus exists on MOT's earnings release tomorrow after the close, investors clearly appear to be paying preference to more bullish opinions out of UBS Warburg and JP Morgan; shares are trading more than 3% higher. UBS believes MOT will report Q1 results in-line with Street revenue and EPS ests of $6 bln and ($0.12) and recommends investors accumulate shares of MOT ahead of the qtr. JP Morgan expects MOT will meet Q1 EPS guidance of ($0.11)-($0.14) with sales of TDMA and CDMA phones likely better than expected and guidance for Q2 in handsets and semiconductors to be positive. Bear Stearns is more cautious and believes that MOT will report revenues and earnings in line to slightly below their ests. 11:29AM SoundView Initiations : -- Update to 8:48 In Play comment -- SoundView Technology initiated coverage Conexant (CNXT 11.25 +0.38) with a Strong Buy rating and price target of $16. Citing: channel checks which suggest upside to March quarter; belief company is already 100% booked for June quarter against its internal plan; upcoming spin-off of wireless division (to be merged with AHAA) should be catalyst. Also, firm initiated on Alpha Ind (00C0 14.68 +0.18) with a Buy rating and price target of $16, saying pending merger with wireless operations of CNXT will have extensive product portfolio and enlarged/diversified customer base. Valuation looks attractive relative to peers, but firm thinks best way to play valuation differential is via CNXT... CNXT trading up 4%, AHAA up 1.2%. finance.yahoo.com RtS

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