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Politics : Formerly About Applied Materials -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Gottfried who wrote (62877)	4/16/2002 7:01:04 AM
From: robert b furman	Respond to of 70976

HI G, Very interesting observation. I'm just guessing here,but as James Morgan says - "when they come - they all come at once". My guess is leaders implement new technology - prove it production viability and then the second tier laggards know that they must upgrade or get lost in the low margin commoditization of old tech products/manufacturing processes. Nice to see the turn up come - the past messages of your charts have so eloquently showed once again - you just have to believe. Once again - "Thank You for sharing your excellent work.gg Bob

To: Gottfried who wrote (62877)	4/16/2002 9:31:51 AM
From: Kirk ©	Respond to of 70976

Good News from Philips cbs.marketwatch.com Philips leads European chip stocks Outlook cheers sector, Intel ahead By Emily Church, CBS.MarketWatch.com Last Update: 9:09 AM ET April 16, 2002 LONDON (CBS.MW) - European semiconductor stocks rose sharply Tuesday after Dutch electronics maker Philips posted profits in its March quarter, ahead of expectations and indicated that the trough in its businesses looks to have passed. Philips reached profits after a recovery in its chip and electronics components businesses. Sales decreased 7 percent from the year-ago period to euro 7.6 billion ($6.7 billion), but were also better than expected. Sales were higher in its domestic appliances and medical systems divisions. Philips didn't alter its outlook for earnings and sales for the year, saying it was waiting for better indication that end-market demand was driving the order growth it's seeing. Yet the outlook was still better than many were expecting, analysts said. Chip sector "valuations were starting to be demanding and were pricing in a strong recovery from end customers, but it's clear from what Philips said gives a good indication that demand will be there for the second quarter," said Bruno Allain-Hemeray, hardware and equipment analyst at Oddo Pinatton in Paris. "A very big risk factor for the semiconductor and the stock market on the whole seems to be reduced," he said. Philips posted earnings of euro 9 million before special items, well down from euro 93 million a year ago, but ahead of some estimates for losses over euro 100 million. It posted a euro 182 million loss a year ago. See full story on Philips results "There is some improvement in demand coming through and that's what Texas Instruments was talking about last night and adds to customer destocking, but we haven't yet seen fundamental improvement in demand," said Peter Knox, technology industries analyst at Commerzbank in London. TI (TXN: news, chart, profile) late Monday posted a loss in its March quarter but said sales were increasing as customers restocked. Analysts over night said TI guided for 10 percent sales growth in the second quarter. Shares of Philips (PHG: news, chart, profile) rose 6.5 percent in Amersterdam, leading volumes. STMicroelectronics (STM: news, chart, profile), a Franco-Italian company and the largest chipmaker in Europe, was up 5.5 percent and ASML (ASML: news, chart, profile), a Dutch chip equipment maker, rose 5.9 percent. Germany's Infineon chipmaker (IFX: news, chart, profile) was up 4.4 percent. Emily Church is London bureau chief of CBS.MarketWatch.com.

To: Gottfried who wrote (62877)	4/16/2002 12:31:39 PM
From: Jacob Snyder	Respond to of 70976

re: a plateau about halfway between bottom and peak There is a plateau, in bookings, in both directions. You can see at least a brief horizontal stall, in both uptrends and downtrends. Possible reason: On downtrends, first capacity buys go away, then tech buys (for all semis except those with the prettiest balance sheets) go away. On uptrends, first tech buys come back (for the weaker semis), then capacity buys start, for everyone. You're getting ahead of yourself, trying to guess the shape of the uptrend. We aren't in an uptrend yet. Although bookings are up, the last few months, they are still in the trough range. The important question now is: are we finished with the flat middle part of the U-shaped bottom? Are we now starting the upleg? The stocks say we are. But TXN kept capex unchanged, even as they raise guidance for sales. If we don't get semis increasing capex, then the graph of bookings stays in the flat middle part of the U.

To: Gottfried who wrote (62877)	4/18/2002 1:24:21 AM
From: Paul V.	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 70976

Gottfried and threaders, Note the following DW bull percentages. The market is very overpriced/ Look at he sectors above the 70% range (verbought) for the last 7 weeks, the 50% (mean/average) and only one sector at the 32% range. Bonds have been down as well. I was glad to hear Greenspands statements regarding echnology and technology. Changes Changes Changes Changes Changes Changes Changes 3/8/02 3/12/02 3/19/02 3/26/02 4/2/02 4/9/02 4/16/02 10week 74 10week 71 10week 74 10week 68 10week 69 10week 69 10week 74 30nyse 72 30nyse 72 30nyse 74 30nyse 74 30nyse 73 30nyse 73 30nyse 76 30OTC 60 30OTC 59 30OTC 60 30OTC 60 30OTC 60 30OTC 60 30OTC 60 bpaero 78 bpaero 79 bpaero 80 bpaero 82 bpaero 82 bpaero 82 bpaero 82 bpauto 76 bpauto 78 bpauto 78 bpauto 82 bpauto 82 bpauto 82 bpauto 82 bpbank 78 bpbank 80 bpbank 83 bpbank 84 bpbank 84 bpbank 86 bpbank 86 bpbiom 36 bpbiom 38 bpbiom 42 bpbiom 44 bpbiom 44 bpbiom 34 bpbiom 34 bpbuil 80 bpbuil 80 bpbuil 74 bpbuil 72 bpbuil 72 bpbuil 72 bpbuil 80 bpbusi 64 bpbusi 64 bpbusi 65 bpbusi 66 bpbusi 68 bpbusi 68 bpbusi 68 bpchem 68 bpchem 68 bpchem 73 bpchem 76 bpchem 76 bpchem 76 bpchem 78 BPCOMP 44 BPCOMP 44 BPCOMP 45 BPCOMP 44 BPCOMP 44 BPCOMP 44 BPCOMP 44 bpdrug 48 bpdrug 50 bpdrug 54 bpdrug 54 bpdrug 54 bpdrug 48 bpdrug 48 bpelec 46 bpelec 48 bpelec 51 bpelec 50 bpelec 52 bpelec 52 bpelec 52 bpeuro bpeuro bpeuro bpeuro bpeuro bpeuro bpeuro bpeuti 54 bpeuti 54 bpeuti 57 bpeuti 60 bpeuti 60 bpeuti 62 bpeuti 62 bpfina 62 bpfina 63 bpfina 65 bpfina 66 bpfina 66 bpfina 66 bpfina 70 bpfood 64 bpfood 65 bpfood 67 bpfood 68 bpfood 70 bpfood 70 bpfood 74 bpfore 68 bpfore 69 bpfore 71 bpfore 70 bpfore 70 bpfore 70 bpfore 74 bpgame 64 bpgame 72 bpgame 72 bpgame 72 bpgame 64 bpgame 56 bpgame 56 bpguti 46 bpguti 51 bpguti 53 bpguti 64 bpguti 68 bpguti 68 bpguti 68 bpheal 46 bpheal 49 bpheal 52 bpheal 52 bpheal 52 bpheal 54 bpheal 54 bphous 70 bphous 71 bphous 75 bphous 76 bphous 76 bphous 76 bphous 76 bpinet 36 bpinet 37 bpinet 36 bpinet 36 bpinet 36 bpinet 36 bpinet 36 bpinsu 70 bpinsu 67 bpinsu 70 bpinsu 72 bpinsu 74 bpinsu 78 bpinsu 82 bplati 46 bplati 50 bplati 50 bplati 52 bplati 52 bplati 54 bplati 54 bpleis 64 bpleis 67 bpleis 68 bpleis 68 bpleis 68 bpleis 68 bpleis 68 bpmach 62 bpmach 63 bpmach 67 bpmach 68 bpmach 70 bpmach 70 bpmach 70 bpmedi 58 bpmedi 59 bpmedi 61 bpmedi 60 bpmedi 60 bpmedi 60 bpmedi 60 bpmeta 56 bpmeta 66 bpmeta 66 bpmeta 66 bpmeta 68 bpmeta 70 bpmeta 74 bpnyse 62 bpnyse 64 bpnyse 66 bpnyse 66 bpnyse 67 bpnyse 67 bpnyse 68 bpoil 50 bpoil 54 bpoil 62 bpoil 64 bpoil 70 bpoil 70 bpoil 70 bpoils 74 bpoils 78 bpoils 77 bpoils 78 bpoils 78 bpoils 78 bpoils 70 bpopti 60 bpopti 62 bpopti 63 bpopti 62 bpopti 62 bpopti 60 bpopti 62 bpotc 50 bpotc 52 bpotc 53 bpotc 54 bpotc 54 bpotc 51 bpotc 54 bpprec 72 bpprec 67 bpprec 67 bpprec 74 bpprec 78 bpprec 72 bpprec 72 bpprot 54 bpprot 54 bpprot 57 bpprot 56 bpprot 56 bpprot 56 bpprot 56 bpreal 70 bpreal 75 bpreal 79 bpreal 78 bpreal 78 bpreal 80 bpreal 82 bprest 70 bprest 72 bprest 70 bprest 76 bprest 76 bprest 76 bprest 78 bpreta 70 bpreta 72 bpreta 72 bpreta 72 bpreta 72 bpreta 72 bpreta 72 bpsavi 82 bpsavi 83 bpsavi 83 bpsavi 82 bpsavi 82 bpsavi 82 bpsavi 86 BPSEMI 60 BPSEMI 60 BPSEMI 59 BPSEMI 60 BPSEMI 60 BPSEMI 48 BPSEMI 46 bpsoft 44 bpsoft 47 bpsoft 46 bpsoft 46 bpsoft 46 bpsoft 38 bpsoft 38 bpstee 62 bpstee 62 bpstee 62 bpstee 74 bpstee 76 bpstee 80 bpstee 80 BPTELE 30 BPTELE 32 BPTELE 33 BPTELE 32 BPTELE 32 BPTELE 32 BPTELE 32 bptext 72 bptext 73 bptext 75 bptext 76 bptext 80 bptext 80 bptext 82 bptran 72 bptran 72 bptran 74 bptran 74 bptran 74 bptran 74 bptran 76 bpwall 64 bpwall 64 bpwall 64 bpwall 64 bpwall 64 bpwall 64 bpwall 56 bpwast 46 bpwast 53 bpwast 53 bpwast 52 bpwast 52 bpwast 52 bpwast 52 HLnyse 86 HLnyse 92 HLnyse 92 HLnyse 80 HLnyse 76 HLnyse 77 HLnyse 82 HLotc 70 HLotc 80 HLotc 85 HLotc 86 HLotc 83 HLotc 75 HLotc 76 twotc 54 twotc 51 twotc 54 twotc 56 twotc 56 twotc 52 twotc 61 Changes Changes Changes Changes Changes Changes Changes 3/8/02 3/12/02 3/19/02 3/26/02 4/2/02 4/9/02 4/16/02 bpeuro bpeuro bpeuro bpeuro bpeuro bpeuro bpeuro HLnyse 86 HLnyse 92 HLnyse 92 HLotc 86 bpbank 84 bpbank 86 bpsavi 86 bpsavi 82 bpsavi 83 HLotc 85 bpbank 84 HLotc 83 bpsavi 82 bpbank 86 bpbuil 80 HLotc 80 bpsavi 83 bpsavi 82 bpsavi 82 bpauto 82 HLnyse 82 bpbank 78 bpbuil 80 bpbank 83 bpauto 82 bpauto 82 bpaero 82 bptext 82 bpaero 78 bpbank 80 bpaero 80 bpaero 82 bpaero 82 bptext 80 bpreal 82 bpauto 76 bpaero 79 bpreal 79 HLnyse 80 bptext 80 bpstee 80 bpinsu 82 bpoils 74 bpoils 78 bpauto 78 bpreal 78 bpreal 78 bpreal 80 bpauto 82 10week 74 bpauto 78 bpoils 77 bpoils 78 bpprec 78 bpoils 78 bpaero 82 bptran 72 bpreal 75 bptext 75 bptext 76 bpoils 78 bpinsu 78 bpstee 80 bptext 72 bptext 73 bphous 75 bprest 76 HLnyse 76 HLnyse 77 bpbuil 80 bpprec 72 bptran 72 bptran 74 bphous 76 bpstee 76 bprest 76 bprest 78 30nyse 72 bpreta 72 bpbuil 74 bpchem 76 bprest 76 bphous 76 bpchem 78 HLotc 70 bprest 72 30nyse 74 bptran 74 bphous 76 bpchem 76 HLotc 76 bpreta 70 bpgame 72 10week 74 bpstee 74 bpchem 76 HLotc 75 bptran 76 bprest 70 30nyse 72 bpchem 73 bpprec 74 bptran 74 bptran 74 bphous 76 bpreal 70 bphous 71 bpreta 72 30nyse 74 bpinsu 74 30nyse 73 30nyse 76 bpinsu 70 10week 71 bpgame 72 bpreta 72 30nyse 73 bpreta 72 bpmeta 74 bphous 70 bpfore 69 bpfore 71 bpinsu 72 bpreta 72 bpprec 72 bpfore 74 bpfore 68 bpchem 68 bprest 70 bpgame 72 bpbuil 72 bpbuil 72 bpfood 74 bpchem 68 bpprec 67 bpinsu 70 bpbuil 72 bpoil 70 bpoil 70 10week 74 bpwall 64 bpleis 67 bpleis 68 bpfore 70 bpmach 70 bpmeta 70 bpreta 72 bpleis 64 bpinsu 67 bpprec 67 bpmach 68 bpfore 70 bpmach 70 bpprec 72 bpgame 64 bpmeta 66 bpmach 67 bpleis 68 bpfood 70 bpfore 70 bpoils 70 bpfood 64 bpfood 65 bpfood 67 bpfood 68 10week 69 bpfood 70 bpoil 70 bpbusi 64 bpwall 64 bpnyse 66 10week 68 bpmeta 68 10week 69 bpmach 70 bpstee 62 bpnyse 64 bpmeta 66 bpnyse 66 bpleis 68 bpleis 68 bpfina 70 bpnyse 62 bpbusi 64 bpfina 65 bpmeta 66 bpguti 68 bpguti 68 bpnyse 68 bpmach 62 bpmach 63 bpbusi 65 bpfina 66 bpbusi 68 bpbusi 68 bpleis 68 bpfina 62 bpfina 63 bpwall 64 bpbusi 66 bpnyse 67 bpnyse 67 bpguti 68 BPSEMI 60 bpstee 62 bpopti 63 bpwall 64 bpfina 66 bpfina 66 bpbusi 68 bpopti 60 bpopti 62 bpstee 62 bpoil 64 bpwall 64 bpwall 64 bpopti 62 30OTC 60 BPSEMI 60 bpoil 62 bpguti 64 bpgame 64 bpeuti 62 bpeuti 62 bpmedi 58 bpmedi 59 bpmedi 61 bpopti 62 bpopti 62 bpopti 60 twotc 61 bpmeta 56 30OTC 59 30OTC 60 BPSEMI 60 BPSEMI 60 bpmedi 60 bpmedi 60 twotc 54 bpprot 54 BPSEMI 59 bpmedi 60 bpmedi 60 30OTC 60 30OTC 60 bpprot 54 bpoil 54 bpprot 57 bpeuti 60 bpeuti 60 bpprot 56 bpwall 56 bpeuti 54 bpeuti 54 bpeuti 57 30OTC 60 30OTC 60 bpgame 56 bpprot 56 bpotc 50 bpwast 53 twotc 54 twotc 56 twotc 56 bplati 54 bpgame 56 bpoil 50 bpotc 52 bpdrug 54 bpprot 56 bpprot 56 bpheal 54 bpotc 54 bpdrug 48 twotc 51 bpwast 53 bpotc 54 bpotc 54 twotc 52 bplati 54 bpwast 46 bpguti 51 bpotc 53 bpdrug 54 bpdrug 54 bpwast 52 bpheal 54 bplati 46 bplati 50 bpguti 53 bpwast 52 bpwast 52 bpelec 52 bpwast 52 bpheal 46 bpdrug 50 bpheal 52 bplati 52 bplati 52 bpotc 51 bpelec 52 bpguti 46 bpheal 49 bpelec 51 bpheal 52 bpheal 52 BPSEMI 48 bpdrug 48 bpelec 46 bpelec 48 bplati 50 bpelec 50 bpelec 52 bpdrug 48 BPSEMI 46 bpsoft 44 bpsoft 47 bpsoft 46 bpsoft 46 bpsoft 46 BPCOMP 44 BPCOMP 44 BPCOMP 44 BPCOMP 44 BPCOMP 45 BPCOMP 44 BPCOMP 44 bpsoft 38 bpsoft 38 bpinet 36 bpbiom 38 bpbiom 42 bpbiom 44 bpbiom 44 bpinet 36 bpinet 36 bpbiom 36 bpinet 37 bpinet 36 bpinet 36 bpinet 36 bpbiom 34 bpbiom 34 BPTELE 30 BPTELE 32 BPTELE 33 BPTELE 32 BPTELE 32 BPTELE 32 BPTELE 32 BPALL SECV60 BPALL SECV62 BPALL SECV62 BPALL SECV64 BPALL SECV65 BPALL SECV64 BPALL SECV64