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To: kdavy who wrote (237)	4/16/2002 2:11:46 PM
From: Jacob Snyder	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 13403

AMAT shorting plan: Sell short, beginning at 60, and every 2.5 points on up, in small increments (1% of portfolio each lot). I will short, all the way up to 100, if necessary. From 60 on up, there is no explanation for the stock price, other than a re-inflated Bubble. And Bubbles, by definition, get popped, sooner or later. That is, this is a ShortAndHold position. Sold my TXN long position today, so I am sitting on over 30% cash, now. Haven't decided on when to cover, when it goes my way. Looks to me like there is weak support at 50, and strong support at 40. I will probably begin covering at 50. Then, if we break below there and continue down, I'd continue covering in small increments, finishing at 40. If we bounce at 50, immediately cover my entire position. Looks to me, like we are getting good news, overall, from semis, and consistently good news from semi-equips. And everyone is ignoring the fact that the Powell peace mission is a total failure, and we are on track to ME war, revolution, and embargoes. So we may very well get a big rally here (assuming investors are watching CNBC, not CNN). But........looks to me like all that, and more, is already in the stocks. At these prices, semis are overvalued, based on the rosy scenario and 2003 earnings. And semi-equips are fully priced, for cycle peak earnings and a benign macro picture.

To: kdavy who wrote (237)	4/18/2002 1:26:26 PM
From: Jacob Snyder	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 13403

EMIS V(=very)LT buy/sell plan: Buy, 1% of port. each lot, @ 15, 14, and 13. Sell half of my position at 30, hold the rest till I have a 10-bagger or the stock is delisted (about even odds, IMO, for those two results). EMIS is a microcap drug company, has never made a profit since the company was founded 16 years ago. Barely has any sales, and is burning through its cash so fast it will run out by mid-2003. It is developing an oral form of heparin, using a proprietary delivery system. Heparin is a widely-used drug, that now can only be given by injection or IV. Phase III trials just finished, but no results public yet. Presumably, the trials went well, since the company is going ahead with plans for a high-volume factory for the oral heparin propo-product. Probably will need further research before it's approved by the FDA, then they will have to partner with a BigPharm, for marketing. The Bubble saved this company. The stock languished for years below 20, and the company didn't have enough cash to develop their ideas. They were forced to sell rights to those ideas, when they were in early development. Basically, BigPharm used them as an R&D boutique, and Emisphere always had a weak bargaining position, as they were always short of cash. However, in 1999 and 2000, their stock zoomed briefly to 80 (for no reason, other than the foolishness of investors during the Bubble), and they used this opportunity to do two secondary stock offerings, raising a pile of cash from the Gullible and Exuberant. This gave them the cash to buy back rights to their promising oral heparin product, and fund the Phase III trials themselves. They also did a modest stock repurchase in 2001, which had to enrage the investors who had bought the secondary stock offerings at much higher stock levels. Myabe that's why there are 2M shares short, out of a total float of 18M shares. Another sordid tale of the "monetization of ignorance". If the drug trials come out good, they will be in a strong negotiating position to partner, and on track to grab a big slice of the 2B$/Y heparin market (which is growing by 15%/Y). If the drug trials turn out badly, or unexpected side effects are found, or any of a list of other bad things happen, then the company is toast. 2001 annual report: corporate-ir.net IR web site: emisphere.com