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Politics : Foreign Affairs Discussion Group -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: LindyBill who wrote (25719)	4/17/2002 11:46:43 PM
From: tekboy	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 281500

the piece FA carried on Chavez last fall was actually dead-on (Kurt Weyland, "Will Chavez Lose His Luster?" Nov/Dec 01). From its introduction and conclusion: "And yet, strong as his current position seems, Chavez is standing on political quicksand....the economic malaise continues, unemployment and crime rates rise, and the chances of effective government action grow dimmer. These economic and social troubles will soon pose a serious political problem. The president lacks an organized base of political support and has tense relations with many of the powers that be, especially business, the Catholic Church, and sectors of the military. He therefore depends on strong, widespread backing from the Venezuelan masses. Yet how long will citizens wait before insisting that Chavez deliver on his promises of economic and social improvements? And how will Chavez produce these improvements while many businesspeople continue to distrust his intentions and remain unwilling to commit their capital? "An anti-Chavez coalition of business and military interests is increasingly plausible. Further economic erosion and decline of popular support for the president could spark more defections within the armed forces. As has happened so many times in Latin America, military officers would join forces with business and the church, with tacit support from a disaffected middle class. Bold moves by the president could consolidate his rule, or they could lead to crisis and his ouster. Either way, the political clock in Venezuela is running out." I bet the folks who could predict stuff like that could tell you what QCOM would do in six months also, and make gobs and gobs of money in the market... tb@nocomment.pov